To start the week wheat opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night. Mpls was the weakest of the three wheat exchanges while both winter wheat exchanges saw decent gains. Early support was due to technical buying as wheat bounced off support. A sharply higher crude oil market added support. Gains were trimmed from spillover pressure from a lower corn market. Light selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving crop rating for winter wheat and a strong first rating for HRS wheat. Improving weather conditions added pressure as at this time there is no threatening weather in the forecast. Technically wheat has broken through support.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened higher across the board with early support coming from technical buying. Wheat has broken through support and is trying to stage a recovery. Support was also due to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat conditions were unchanged from last week, but spring wheat conditions 13% below expectations.
But the recovery was short lived as heavy selling moved into the wheat exchanges early in the night and continued to expand losses throughout the day. Although conditions were lower than expected, weather forecasts calling for rain for most of the Plains pressured wheat as most expect conditions to improve. In world news, ABARES is estimating Australia’s wheat production at 26.7 MMT down 26% year over year. Technically wheat is extremely oversold and in need of a correction, but the funds are on the defense and running to exit wheat even though fundamentals remain friendly.
Wheat opened steady to higher but slowly faded into the red in Wednesday’s session. Bargain hunter buying was evident on the opening bell, but with no follow through wheat gave into the fund selling. It’s a bit disappointing wheat is collapsing considering we are harvesting the smallest winter wheat crops in decades. In addition, recent rain in the Southern Plains is delaying harvest and lowering the quality of the harvestable wheat. Slow demand and improving conditions in the Northern Plains added pressure. MW has dropped over $1 since the selloff started and is trading at lows not seen since the beginning of April.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each exchange going its own direction (Mpls steady, Chicago lower, KC higher). Buying pushed wheat higher at the start of the day session with buying attributed to technical buying as traders try to correct an oversold condition. But the selling pressure from the lower corn and soybeans combined with another heavy roll of exports from old crop to new crop proved to be too much for the bulls to overcome. Seasonal pressure and non-threatening weather continued to add pressure. Argentina’s lower tax on wheat exports has been implemented. Wheat’s new daily trading limit is now set at 45 cents.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.30, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.50, July Chicago wheat support is $5.87, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.195 down 44.25 cents while Sept was at $6.4625 down 42.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.80 down 30.5 cents, July KC was at $6.2075 down 29.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments June 5
Wheat Weekly Comments June 5
To start the week wheat opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night. Mpls was the weakest of the three wheat exchanges while both winter wheat exchanges saw decent gains. Early support was due to technical buying as wheat bounced off support. A sharply higher crude oil market added support. Gains were trimmed from spillover pressure from a lower corn market. Light selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show improving crop rating for winter wheat and a strong first rating for HRS wheat. Improving weather conditions added pressure as at this time there is no threatening weather in the forecast. Technically wheat has broken through support.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened higher across the board with early support coming from technical buying. Wheat has broken through support and is trying to stage a recovery. Support was also due to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat conditions were unchanged from last week, but spring wheat conditions 13% below expectations.
But the recovery was short lived as heavy selling moved into the wheat exchanges early in the night and continued to expand losses throughout the day. Although conditions were lower than expected, weather forecasts calling for rain for most of the Plains pressured wheat as most expect conditions to improve. In world news, ABARES is estimating Australia’s wheat production at 26.7 MMT down 26% year over year. Technically wheat is extremely oversold and in need of a correction, but the funds are on the defense and running to exit wheat even though fundamentals remain friendly.
Wheat opened steady to higher but slowly faded into the red in Wednesday’s session. Bargain hunter buying was evident on the opening bell, but with no follow through wheat gave into the fund selling. It’s a bit disappointing wheat is collapsing considering we are harvesting the smallest winter wheat crops in decades. In addition, recent rain in the Southern Plains is delaying harvest and lowering the quality of the harvestable wheat. Slow demand and improving conditions in the Northern Plains added pressure. MW has dropped over $1 since the selloff started and is trading at lows not seen since the beginning of April.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each exchange going its own direction (Mpls steady, Chicago lower, KC higher). Buying pushed wheat higher at the start of the day session with buying attributed to technical buying as traders try to correct an oversold condition. But the selling pressure from the lower corn and soybeans combined with another heavy roll of exports from old crop to new crop proved to be too much for the bulls to overcome. Seasonal pressure and non-threatening weather continued to add pressure. Argentina’s lower tax on wheat exports has been implemented. Wheat’s new daily trading limit is now set at 45 cents.
Hedgers target $7.85 to advance spring wheat sales.
July MIAX MW support is $6.30, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.50, July Chicago wheat support is $5.87, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.195 down 44.25 cents while Sept was at $6.4625 down 42.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.80 down 30.5 cents, July KC was at $6.2075 down 29.0 cents.