MARTINSON AG OPENING COMMENTS JUNE 11, 2026
Happy Thursday. Today is report day as USDA will be releasing their weekly Export Sales report this morning and their June Crop Production report at 11 AM. NOPA Crush will be released June 15. June’s COF report will be released June 18. Markets will be closed June 19.
The grains put in another quiet session on Wednesday as wheat and corn closed with minor changes while soybeans saw solid gains. News has become stagnate as all the traders have been trading is recycled information on the war and China potential demand.
Soybeans were able to post small gains on the close on Wednesday, the first higher close in 8 sessions.
The World Cup starts today, and although soccer is just a minor sport in the US, it is huge around the world and that will result in attention being placed on the games, not grain prices.
The continued escalation in the war with Iran has helped to bring some risk premium back into the market. Rumors that the Fed might have to increase interest rates due to estimates looking for inflation to tickle the 4% level once again. The Fed’s goal is 2%. The increased costs of energy continue to keep inflation concerns alive. The next Federal Reserve meeting is June 16 to 17.
USDA is set to release their June Crop Production report tomorrow at 11 AM. This report usually does not influence the market a lot as it only deals with winter wheat production and demand adjustments, but with the winter wheat crop in bad shape, the report might draw a little more attention.
Estimates for the report have old crop wheat ending stocks at 942 MB vs 935 MB last month. New crop stocks were estimated at 765 MB vs 762 MB last month.
All wheat production is estimated at 1.555 BB vs 1.561 BB last month. Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.041 BB vs 1.048 BB last month. That means other spring wheat and durum production is estimated at 514 MB vs 513 MB last month.
Estimates for corn have old crop stocks at 2.138 BB vs 2.142 BB last month. New crop stocks are estimated at 1.947 BB vs 1.957 BB last month.
The average trade estimate for soybeans old crop ending stocks is 339 MB vs. 340 MB last month and new crop ending stocks at 314 MB vs. 310 MB last month.
Weather continues to be bearish in the grains as good rain events are expected to remain in the Plains and Corn Belt through June 24. A concern is the temps, as most are expected to plummet into the mid 70’s for next week. This will dramatically reduce grow degree days.
Currently rain is falling in northwestern ND, eastern MT, southern SD, southern MN, eastern NE, and western IA.
Trump is threatening to no renew USMCA with Mexico and Canada unless the US is treated better. The USMCA has been a very important trade agreement between the three counties accounting for roughly $2 trillion in regional trade.
The grains opened the session higher across the board but have since faded to trade with small losses. As of 5:30 AM, MW was up 1 cent, Chicago down 1 cent, KC down 2.25 cents, corn down 1.5 cents, soybeans down 1 cent, soybean meal up $1.70, soybean oil down 13 cents and canola down $1.00.
Cattle are showing signs of a mixed opening. The increase in screw worm cases in the US is friendly to the cattle, but expectations of increasing inflation is not. A lower crude oil market and higher stock market should help support cattle on the opening bell. A strong cash trade would he supportive.
As of 5:30 AM the outside markets were trading with crude oil down 76 cents, gold was down $30.00, the dollar was up 0.196 of a cent, and the Dow was up 352 points.
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