To start the week wheat opened higher in all three exchanges and continued to trade steady to firm throughout the night. Wheat turned mixed one the day session started with Mpls losing its gains while KC rallied. Early support was due to technical buying as all three wheat exchanges are oversold and in need of a correction. Light support came from expectations that the war with Iran will continue as no one is honoring a ceasefire agreement. Cash wheat prices are 26% off their recent highs. Light activity was focused on position squaring ahead of Thursday’s Crop Production report.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened lower in MW and Chicago but with gains in KC. Mpls was under pressure due to Monday afternoon’s better than expected crop condition rating for spring wheat. Spring wheat conditions improved 5%, which was 3% higher better than expected. Chicago was under pressure from solid crop ratings. KC was supported by lower crop ratings. All three wheat exchanges were able to push and post gains for most of the day’s session due to technical buying. Overall trading was thin and light as traders wait for news, which will likely come Thursday in USDA’s June Crop Production report.
Wheat opened steady in Mpls and KC but lower in the Chicago exchange on Wednesday. Technical buying helped wheat push higher early in the session as all three wheat exchanges are oversold and in need of a dead cat bounce. Reports of persistent rain in both Ukraine and the US Delta region is starting to cause concern of possible quality issues as the rain has delayed harvest. Overall trading was thin and light as traders wait for news, which will likely come Thursday in USDA’s June Crop Production report.
On Thursday wheat opened higher in all months but switched to trade mixed by the end of the night session. Early support was due to last minute position squaring ahead of the USDA Crop Production report. Technical buying and profit taking added to the support. The report was friendly wheat as winter wheat production was trimmed more than expected. All wheat production was estimated at 1.543 BB, 14 MB below expectations and 18 MB below last month. All winter wheat production was estimated at 1.03 BB vs 1.048 last month. The decrease in winter wheat production was due to a 0.8 bus drop in the estimated yield for winter wheat, which is now estimated at 46.8 bus.
The decrease in production followed through to end up lower ending stocks by the same, putting stocks are 744 MB. But oddly, the national average price for wheat dropped 50 cents to $6.00. USDA made no changes to the old crop wheat numbers, except to increase the national average price 5 cents to $5.05. World wheat numbers were neutral as well. Stocks were estimated at 275.4 MMT, 1.1 MMT above expected and 400 TMT above.
July MIAX MW support is $6.30, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.50, July Chicago wheat support is $5.87, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.1825 down 1.25 cents while Sept was at $6.42 down 4.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.845 up 4.5 cents, July KC was at $6.345 up 13.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments June 12
Wheat Weekly Comments June 12
To start the week wheat opened higher in all three exchanges and continued to trade steady to firm throughout the night. Wheat turned mixed one the day session started with Mpls losing its gains while KC rallied. Early support was due to technical buying as all three wheat exchanges are oversold and in need of a correction. Light support came from expectations that the war with Iran will continue as no one is honoring a ceasefire agreement. Cash wheat prices are 26% off their recent highs. Light activity was focused on position squaring ahead of Thursday’s Crop Production report.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened lower in MW and Chicago but with gains in KC. Mpls was under pressure due to Monday afternoon’s better than expected crop condition rating for spring wheat. Spring wheat conditions improved 5%, which was 3% higher better than expected. Chicago was under pressure from solid crop ratings. KC was supported by lower crop ratings. All three wheat exchanges were able to push and post gains for most of the day’s session due to technical buying. Overall trading was thin and light as traders wait for news, which will likely come Thursday in USDA’s June Crop Production report.
Wheat opened steady in Mpls and KC but lower in the Chicago exchange on Wednesday. Technical buying helped wheat push higher early in the session as all three wheat exchanges are oversold and in need of a dead cat bounce. Reports of persistent rain in both Ukraine and the US Delta region is starting to cause concern of possible quality issues as the rain has delayed harvest. Overall trading was thin and light as traders wait for news, which will likely come Thursday in USDA’s June Crop Production report.
On Thursday wheat opened higher in all months but switched to trade mixed by the end of the night session. Early support was due to last minute position squaring ahead of the USDA Crop Production report. Technical buying and profit taking added to the support. The report was friendly wheat as winter wheat production was trimmed more than expected. All wheat production was estimated at 1.543 BB, 14 MB below expectations and 18 MB below last month. All winter wheat production was estimated at 1.03 BB vs 1.048 last month. The decrease in winter wheat production was due to a 0.8 bus drop in the estimated yield for winter wheat, which is now estimated at 46.8 bus.
The decrease in production followed through to end up lower ending stocks by the same, putting stocks are 744 MB. But oddly, the national average price for wheat dropped 50 cents to $6.00. USDA made no changes to the old crop wheat numbers, except to increase the national average price 5 cents to $5.05. World wheat numbers were neutral as well. Stocks were estimated at 275.4 MMT, 1.1 MMT above expected and 400 TMT above.
July MIAX MW support is $6.30, Sept MIAX MW support is at $6.50, July Chicago wheat support is $5.87, July KC support is $6.12.
For the week, July Mpls MIAX was at $6.1825 down 1.25 cents while Sept was at $6.42 down 4.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.845 up 4.5 cents, July KC was at $6.345 up 13.75 cents.