To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then traded in a choppy fashion. The markets saw the session lows at the start of the day session but then climbed higher and closed with small gains. Overnight pressure came from US/Iran agreement to end the war, which pulled all of the commodities lower. Technical buying helped soybeans recover in the day session. Last week’s export shipments were within expectations. Marketing year-to-date shipments are running 20% behind last year’s pace.
NOPA released their May crush report with crush at 208.8 MB, quite a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 216.0 MB but it did set a new record for the month of May. Soybean oil stocks were also lower than expected at 1.735 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.855 billion pounds.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were lower overnight, shot higher at the start of the day session, and then held most of the gains to close with double-digit gains. Overnight pressure came from Monday’s crop progress report that showed a 1% increase in the crop condition rating and a lack of threatening weather. But rumors that China was in buying US soybeans pulled soybeans higher (those rumors are unconfirmed as of now). While the recent drop in prices has made US soybeans more competitive with Brazil, the US and China still have 10% tariffs on each other.
Gains were limited by expectations that there will be an increase in soybean acres in the June 30 USDA acreage report. A private analyst released their estimate of soybean planted acres at 85.3 million vs. USDA’s March estimate of 84.7 million. Dr. Cordonnier increased his estimate of the US soybean yield by 0.5 bu. to 52.5 bu.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the higher side and closed with small gains. USDA reported a sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Soybeans saw double-digit gains on Tuesday on rumors of China buying and traders took today’s sale as confirmation of that, so it didn’t move the market much. Technical buying supported the market. Above average rains in the forecast for most of the Midwest over the next 2 weeks limited gains. Brazil again increased their estimate of June soybean exports from 14.38 MMT to 15.31 MMT, which would easily set a new record for the month.
July soybean support is $11.57. Nov soybean support is at $11.73.
For the week, July soybeans were at $11.2275 up 9.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.4275 up 10.75 cents. July soybean meal was unchanged at $301.30 and July soybean oil was at $69.69 down $4.59.
Soybean Weekly Comments June 18
Soybean Weekly Comments June 18
To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then traded in a choppy fashion. The markets saw the session lows at the start of the day session but then climbed higher and closed with small gains. Overnight pressure came from US/Iran agreement to end the war, which pulled all of the commodities lower. Technical buying helped soybeans recover in the day session. Last week’s export shipments were within expectations. Marketing year-to-date shipments are running 20% behind last year’s pace.
NOPA released their May crush report with crush at 208.8 MB, quite a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 216.0 MB but it did set a new record for the month of May. Soybean oil stocks were also lower than expected at 1.735 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.855 billion pounds.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were lower overnight, shot higher at the start of the day session, and then held most of the gains to close with double-digit gains. Overnight pressure came from Monday’s crop progress report that showed a 1% increase in the crop condition rating and a lack of threatening weather. But rumors that China was in buying US soybeans pulled soybeans higher (those rumors are unconfirmed as of now). While the recent drop in prices has made US soybeans more competitive with Brazil, the US and China still have 10% tariffs on each other.
Gains were limited by expectations that there will be an increase in soybean acres in the June 30 USDA acreage report. A private analyst released their estimate of soybean planted acres at 85.3 million vs. USDA’s March estimate of 84.7 million. Dr. Cordonnier increased his estimate of the US soybean yield by 0.5 bu. to 52.5 bu.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the higher side and closed with small gains. USDA reported a sale of 264,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Soybeans saw double-digit gains on Tuesday on rumors of China buying and traders took today’s sale as confirmation of that, so it didn’t move the market much. Technical buying supported the market. Above average rains in the forecast for most of the Midwest over the next 2 weeks limited gains. Brazil again increased their estimate of June soybean exports from 14.38 MMT to 15.31 MMT, which would easily set a new record for the month.
July soybean support is $11.57. Nov soybean support is at $11.73.
For the week, July soybeans were at $11.2275 up 9.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.4275 up 10.75 cents. July soybean meal was unchanged at $301.30 and July soybean oil was at $69.69 down $4.59.