Cattle Weekly Comments June 26

Cattle Weekly Comments June 26

Cattle started the week posting solid gains due to support from Thursday’s friendly COF report. A slight retracement took place on Tuesday to test the resilience of the traders holding long positions, but then the rest of the week saw cattle pushing forward.

Cattle opened the week higher and extended session gains throughout the day. Early support came from Thursday friendly to bullish COF report. The report showed lower than expected numbers for all categories. Marketing was at the second lowest number since the start of the COF report in 1996. Confirmation of 3 more new world screw worm cases added support. Strong demand and supply concerns keep a floor under the cattle.

Selling gripped the cattle market on Tuesday. Cattle opened the session mixed with live cattle lower while feeder cattle opened with gains, but it did not take long for both to trade on the defense. Live cattle were under pressure from the lack of a cash trade. Last week’s cash activity took place between $258 and $260. Feeder cattle were supported by a softer grain complex. Last week the funds were buyers of cattle as they have added to their long position.

Buyers returned to the cattle market midweek with both contracts closing with strong gains. Cattle opened the session higher and never looked back. Live cattle were supported by the expectation of higher cash trade while feeder cattle were supported by tight supplies and strong demand. A lower grain complex added support as did lower crude oil. Live cattle gains were kept in check by the lack of a cash trade. Last week’s cash activity took place between $258 and $260.

Gains were a little harder to come by to close out the week ending Thursday. It feels like the cattle market is getting heavy again and ready to see a retracement. Cattle did gap higher on the opening bell but faded to trade mixed for a bit before finding strength to push back higher. Technical buying helped give cattle strength as it looks like cattle are wanting to try and make a test of their old highs. Live cattle were supported by reports of a light cash trade taking place at $260, which was steady with last week. Another strong export sales pace added support. Last week’s export pace was estimated at 21,268 MT, the second highest weekly export sales pace this year. Strong demand and solid cash bids added support to the feeder cattle. Gains were kept in check by the higher corn market.

As of June 21, pasture and range conditions were rated at 33% g/e, 30% fair and 37% p/vp, up 1% from last week.

For the week, June live cattle closed at $257.45 up $2.65. Aug feeder cattle closed at $369.85 up $3.25.

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