To start the week, soybeans were higher overnight, pulled back at the start of the day session but then rebounded and closed with small gains. Support spilled over from the strong gains in the crude oil market. Support also came from positioning ahead of Wednesday’s report as traders expect to see small cuts in production and ending stocks. Gains were limited by forecasts for good rains for much of the Midwest this week. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade estimates and the highest in 4 weeks. After the close, the crop progress report lowered the soybean rating by 1% to 62% g/e. ND showed the most deterioration by far, dropping another 13% to 31% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses. Overnight support came from Monday afternoon’s crop progress report that lowered the soybean rating another 1% to 62% g/e. But pressure this morning came from Pakistan saying the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal. However, later comments from Iranian officials didn’t support that idea. Forecasts that added some rain for the Northern Plains added pressure. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China. There was also a sale of 180,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines.
On Wednesday soybeans saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Early support spilled over from the strong gains in the wheat markets. USDA’s announcement of a sale of 244,000 MT of soybeans to China added support.
Wednesday’s USDA report was neutral to negative soybeans. For old crop, ending stocks were cut 5 MB to 325 MB, which was 4 MB higher than expected. For new crop, USDA cut yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu., but that was offset by a surprising 1.4 million increase in harvested acres. That increased production by 44 MB to 4.519 MB, which was 54 MB higher than expected.
For new crop, USDA cut beginning stocks by 5 MB, increased production 44 MB, increased crush 30 MB and cut residual 1 MB. That took ending stocks to 320 MB, 10 MB higher than last month and 18 MB higher than expected. The national average price was left unchanged at $11.40.
For world old crop numbers, USDA increased Brazil’s production 0.5 MMT to 180.5 MMT but decreased Argentina by 0.5 MMT to 49.5 MMT. New crop world ending stocks were left unchanged at 124.2 MMT.
Soybeans traded back and forth in a very choppy session on Thursday and closed within a cent of either side of unchanged. Pressure came from rain falling in SD, MN, and IA. Pressure also came from Wednesday’s USDA report as production was increased more than expected due to a surprising increase in acres. But support came from improving export demand as China continues to make purchases. USDA reported a sale of 125,000 MT of soybeans to China. Total new crop export sales are at 372 MB vs. 173 MB at the same time last year due to China being back in the market. So far China has bought 167 MB of new crop beans while unknown destinations (likely China) have purchased 132 MB.
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $11.7625 up 18.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.9075 up 16.25 cents. Sept soybean meal was at $309.90 up $1.30 and Sept soybean oil was at $69.37 up $1.20.
Soybean Weekly Comments August 14
Soybean Weekly Comments August 14
To start the week, soybeans were higher overnight, pulled back at the start of the day session but then rebounded and closed with small gains. Support spilled over from the strong gains in the crude oil market. Support also came from positioning ahead of Wednesday’s report as traders expect to see small cuts in production and ending stocks. Gains were limited by forecasts for good rains for much of the Midwest this week. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade estimates and the highest in 4 weeks. After the close, the crop progress report lowered the soybean rating by 1% to 62% g/e. ND showed the most deterioration by far, dropping another 13% to 31% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses. Overnight support came from Monday afternoon’s crop progress report that lowered the soybean rating another 1% to 62% g/e. But pressure this morning came from Pakistan saying the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal. However, later comments from Iranian officials didn’t support that idea. Forecasts that added some rain for the Northern Plains added pressure. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China. There was also a sale of 180,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines.
On Wednesday soybeans saw small gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Early support spilled over from the strong gains in the wheat markets. USDA’s announcement of a sale of 244,000 MT of soybeans to China added support.
Wednesday’s USDA report was neutral to negative soybeans. For old crop, ending stocks were cut 5 MB to 325 MB, which was 4 MB higher than expected. For new crop, USDA cut yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu., but that was offset by a surprising 1.4 million increase in harvested acres. That increased production by 44 MB to 4.519 MB, which was 54 MB higher than expected.
For new crop, USDA cut beginning stocks by 5 MB, increased production 44 MB, increased crush 30 MB and cut residual 1 MB. That took ending stocks to 320 MB, 10 MB higher than last month and 18 MB higher than expected. The national average price was left unchanged at $11.40.
For world old crop numbers, USDA increased Brazil’s production 0.5 MMT to 180.5 MMT but decreased Argentina by 0.5 MMT to 49.5 MMT. New crop world ending stocks were left unchanged at 124.2 MMT.
Soybeans traded back and forth in a very choppy session on Thursday and closed within a cent of either side of unchanged. Pressure came from rain falling in SD, MN, and IA. Pressure also came from Wednesday’s USDA report as production was increased more than expected due to a surprising increase in acres. But support came from improving export demand as China continues to make purchases. USDA reported a sale of 125,000 MT of soybeans to China. Total new crop export sales are at 372 MB vs. 173 MB at the same time last year due to China being back in the market. So far China has bought 167 MB of new crop beans while unknown destinations (likely China) have purchased 132 MB.
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $11.7625 up 18.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.9075 up 16.25 cents. Sept soybean meal was at $309.90 up $1.30 and Sept soybean oil was at $69.37 up $1.20.