To start the week wheat opened the session higher across the board and extended session gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. A higher crude oil market added support as although the military conflict with Iran has calmed down, the negotiations have not. Or lack of negotiations that is as Iran is not in direct talks with the US. But they have a list of demand before completely re opening the Straight, which is not acceptable to the US. Ukraine reported their export program will shrink due to the ongoing war with Russia. Total exports are now estimated at 39.4 MMT vs 43.1 MMT previously. They are estimating wheat production at 22.6 MMT vs 22.4 MMT previously. By midsession of the day session, Mpls turned lower due to expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show solid harvest progress.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower in all three exchanges but managed to turn and trade with gains early in the morning. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which showed lower spring wheat rating than expected. But a social media post at 6 AM sent the markets on a tailspin. The post referred to Pakistan seeing US/Iran deal getting closer. Additional selling came from a change in the 1 to 5-day forecast, which now shows increasing chances for rain in the Northern Plains over the next 5 days. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of the Aug Crop Production report added pressure.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady in the Mpls exchange, but with gains in the winter wheat contracts. Gains expanded early in the morning off of news of more attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz. Support also came from reports of Russia attacking more export facilities in Ukraine while Ukraine attacked a Naval Base in Russia.
Wednesday’s report was a nonevent for wheat, maybe a little negative. For old crop food demand declined 1 MB while feed demand increased 1 MB. The net result was no change in old crop stocks. For new crop, USDA lowered yield 0.1 bus, which resulted in a 5 MB decline in production, now estimated at 1.53 BB. USDA made no adjustments to new crop wheat demand. The net result, a 5 MB drop in stocks, estimated at 717 MB, 1 MB below expectations. The national average price increased 20 cents to $6.20.
All wheat production was estimated at 1.53 BB, 7 MB above expectations but 5 MB below last month. All winter wheat production was estimated at 990 MB, 6 MB above expectations but unchanged from last month. Other spring wheat was estimated at 474 MB, 8 MB above expectations but 1 MB below last month. ND’s spring wheat yield decreased 3 bus to 53 bus, which was offset by an increase in MT harvest acreage (190,000) and an increase in yield (2 bus).
On the world stage, USDA put stocks at 273.3 MMT, 1.3 MMT above expectations and 500 TMT above last month. Production changes were made to Canada (+1.0 MMT), EU (-1.8 MMT), and Ukraine (+1.4 MMT).
In Thursday’s session wheat opened mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. Early support spilled over from Wednesday’s strong performance due to the friendly USDA report. Concerns about what methodology was used to determine the numbers brought a dark cloud over the market during the day session. Reports that Ukraine has sent a formal request to Russia asking both sides halt attacking civilian targets in the Black Sea region sent wheat lower as if agreed to, this would reduce the risk for exporting grains out of Ukraine and Russia. That request falls in line with the reports that both Russia and Ukraine are looking for alternative routes to ship product due to the travesty in the Black Sea.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.7825 down 1.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.7425 up 35.0 cents, Sept KC was at $7.5425 up 40.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments August 14
Wheat Weekly Comments August 14
To start the week wheat opened the session higher across the board and extended session gains throughout the night and into the start of the day session. A higher crude oil market added support as although the military conflict with Iran has calmed down, the negotiations have not. Or lack of negotiations that is as Iran is not in direct talks with the US. But they have a list of demand before completely re opening the Straight, which is not acceptable to the US. Ukraine reported their export program will shrink due to the ongoing war with Russia. Total exports are now estimated at 39.4 MMT vs 43.1 MMT previously. They are estimating wheat production at 22.6 MMT vs 22.4 MMT previously. By midsession of the day session, Mpls turned lower due to expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show solid harvest progress.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower in all three exchanges but managed to turn and trade with gains early in the morning. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which showed lower spring wheat rating than expected. But a social media post at 6 AM sent the markets on a tailspin. The post referred to Pakistan seeing US/Iran deal getting closer. Additional selling came from a change in the 1 to 5-day forecast, which now shows increasing chances for rain in the Northern Plains over the next 5 days. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of the Aug Crop Production report added pressure.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady in the Mpls exchange, but with gains in the winter wheat contracts. Gains expanded early in the morning off of news of more attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz. Support also came from reports of Russia attacking more export facilities in Ukraine while Ukraine attacked a Naval Base in Russia.
Wednesday’s report was a nonevent for wheat, maybe a little negative. For old crop food demand declined 1 MB while feed demand increased 1 MB. The net result was no change in old crop stocks. For new crop, USDA lowered yield 0.1 bus, which resulted in a 5 MB decline in production, now estimated at 1.53 BB. USDA made no adjustments to new crop wheat demand. The net result, a 5 MB drop in stocks, estimated at 717 MB, 1 MB below expectations. The national average price increased 20 cents to $6.20.
All wheat production was estimated at 1.53 BB, 7 MB above expectations but 5 MB below last month. All winter wheat production was estimated at 990 MB, 6 MB above expectations but unchanged from last month. Other spring wheat was estimated at 474 MB, 8 MB above expectations but 1 MB below last month. ND’s spring wheat yield decreased 3 bus to 53 bus, which was offset by an increase in MT harvest acreage (190,000) and an increase in yield (2 bus).
On the world stage, USDA put stocks at 273.3 MMT, 1.3 MMT above expectations and 500 TMT above last month. Production changes were made to Canada (+1.0 MMT), EU (-1.8 MMT), and Ukraine (+1.4 MMT).
In Thursday’s session wheat opened mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. Early support spilled over from Wednesday’s strong performance due to the friendly USDA report. Concerns about what methodology was used to determine the numbers brought a dark cloud over the market during the day session. Reports that Ukraine has sent a formal request to Russia asking both sides halt attacking civilian targets in the Black Sea region sent wheat lower as if agreed to, this would reduce the risk for exporting grains out of Ukraine and Russia. That request falls in line with the reports that both Russia and Ukraine are looking for alternative routes to ship product due to the travesty in the Black Sea.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.7825 down 1.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.7425 up 35.0 cents, Sept KC was at $7.5425 up 40.25 cents.