To start the week soybeans saw mostly small gains overnight but climbed higher throughout Monday’s day session and finished with over 20 cent gains. Support came from escalation in both the Russia/Ukraine and US/Iran wars. Support also came from early Crop Tour reports that found a lot of variability in the soybean crop. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. The July NOPA report was mixed. Crush was at 216.6 MB, lower than the average trade estimate of 221.5 MB but it shattered the previous July record of 195.7 MB. However, soybean oil stocks were much lower than expected at 1.360 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.454 billion pounds. After the close, the Crop Progress report lowered the soybean crop rating by 1% to 61% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened lower but like the other grains found strength and rallied to trade with gains by early morning. Selling was tied profit taking after Monday’s strong performance. Traders brushed off the early selling pressure due to support from reports of an export sale of 136 TMT of soybeans to China as well as from day 1 results of the Pro Farmer tour as well as from another week of lower crop ratings. Day 1 found disappointing pod counts in SD and OH. In SD the tour reported pods at 945.98 vs 1,188.45 last year. In OH the pod count came in at 1,197.25 vs 1,287.28 last year.
The Crop Progress report also showed a declining crop rating for soybeans, with this week’s decline coming in the central and eastern Corn Belt, not the Northern Plains or western Corn Belt. An escalation in the Black Sea and Middle East war added support. Gains were trimmed by expectations that Tuesday’s lag of the tour will find better crop potential. Technical pressure was also evident as soybeans are only 31 cents from their recent contract highs.
Soybeans opened lower in Wednesday’s session but like corn brushed off the early selling pressure and rallied to post solid gains by the end of the night. Early selling spilled over from Tuesday’s poor close. Soybeans were holding solid gains late in the session Tuesday but lost the gains to end with small gains. Support came from more disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. The tour estimated pod counts in IN at 1,318.64, 4% below last year. NE pod counts were estimated at 1,219.62, down 9% from last year. Early results from Day 3 were also showed the crop was not quite living up to expectations in IA and IL. Technically soybeans are about 20 cents from their recent contract high. At this point, soybeans seem destined to test the July 24 high of $12.56.
Soybeans traded mostly on the higher side in a very choppy session on Thursday, faded late in the session and closed just a cent or two lower. Day 3 of the Crop Tour saw a better crop than days 1 and 2, but results were still lower than last year. IL’s pod count was 1,430 vs. 1,479 last year. Western IA’s pod count was also a bit lower than last year. The tour covers the rest of IA and southern MN today. Support came from improving export demand. USDA reported a sale of 150,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. Last week’s export sales for new crop were near the high end of the range of trade expectations and old crop sales were as expected. New crop sales to date total 436 MB vs. 215 MB at the same time last year. For the period of January through July, China imported 10.29 MMT from the US (down 38% from last year) and imported 44.53 MMT from Brazil (up 5% from last year).
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $12.25 up 47.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.395 up 47.0 cents. Sept soybean meal was at $317.70 up $7.50 and Sept soybean oil was at $69.35 down 9 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments August 21
Soybean Weekly Comments August 21
To start the week soybeans saw mostly small gains overnight but climbed higher throughout Monday’s day session and finished with over 20 cent gains. Support came from escalation in both the Russia/Ukraine and US/Iran wars. Support also came from early Crop Tour reports that found a lot of variability in the soybean crop. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. The July NOPA report was mixed. Crush was at 216.6 MB, lower than the average trade estimate of 221.5 MB but it shattered the previous July record of 195.7 MB. However, soybean oil stocks were much lower than expected at 1.360 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.454 billion pounds. After the close, the Crop Progress report lowered the soybean crop rating by 1% to 61% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened lower but like the other grains found strength and rallied to trade with gains by early morning. Selling was tied profit taking after Monday’s strong performance. Traders brushed off the early selling pressure due to support from reports of an export sale of 136 TMT of soybeans to China as well as from day 1 results of the Pro Farmer tour as well as from another week of lower crop ratings. Day 1 found disappointing pod counts in SD and OH. In SD the tour reported pods at 945.98 vs 1,188.45 last year. In OH the pod count came in at 1,197.25 vs 1,287.28 last year.
The Crop Progress report also showed a declining crop rating for soybeans, with this week’s decline coming in the central and eastern Corn Belt, not the Northern Plains or western Corn Belt. An escalation in the Black Sea and Middle East war added support. Gains were trimmed by expectations that Tuesday’s lag of the tour will find better crop potential. Technical pressure was also evident as soybeans are only 31 cents from their recent contract highs.
Soybeans opened lower in Wednesday’s session but like corn brushed off the early selling pressure and rallied to post solid gains by the end of the night. Early selling spilled over from Tuesday’s poor close. Soybeans were holding solid gains late in the session Tuesday but lost the gains to end with small gains. Support came from more disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. The tour estimated pod counts in IN at 1,318.64, 4% below last year. NE pod counts were estimated at 1,219.62, down 9% from last year. Early results from Day 3 were also showed the crop was not quite living up to expectations in IA and IL. Technically soybeans are about 20 cents from their recent contract high. At this point, soybeans seem destined to test the July 24 high of $12.56.
Soybeans traded mostly on the higher side in a very choppy session on Thursday, faded late in the session and closed just a cent or two lower. Day 3 of the Crop Tour saw a better crop than days 1 and 2, but results were still lower than last year. IL’s pod count was 1,430 vs. 1,479 last year. Western IA’s pod count was also a bit lower than last year. The tour covers the rest of IA and southern MN today. Support came from improving export demand. USDA reported a sale of 150,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. Last week’s export sales for new crop were near the high end of the range of trade expectations and old crop sales were as expected. New crop sales to date total 436 MB vs. 215 MB at the same time last year. For the period of January through July, China imported 10.29 MMT from the US (down 38% from last year) and imported 44.53 MMT from Brazil (up 5% from last year).
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $12.25 up 47.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.395 up 47.0 cents. Sept soybean meal was at $317.70 up $7.50 and Sept soybean oil was at $69.35 down 9 cents.