Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chiago was higher. By the end of the night session, the winter wheat exchanges were lower while Mpls was higher. Early support came from another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Reports had Ukraine conducting a massive drone attack on Russia overnight which was answered by Russia attacking export facilities in Odessa. Wheat faded its gains during the day session as although the reports on the war are supportive wheat, it isn’t bullish wheat unless the US sees export interest. Expectations that Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will not bring anything new to the table added late session pressure.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the session steady to lower but reversed direction and traded with gains by the end of the night session. Selling was due to spill over pressure from Monday’s disappointing performance. Light selling also came from a slightly negative Crop Progress report. The Crop Progress report showed solid harvest progress for both spring wheat and for winter wheat. A better-than-expected crop rating for spring wheat added pressure. An escalation in the war between the US and Iran as well as another activate night of drone attacks by Ukraine in Russia added support. Wheat faded its gains late in the session due to the lack of follow though as well as pressure from spill over selling from a fading corn and soybean market.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower across the board and continued to trade in a quiet two-sided fashion throughout the night. Selling spilled over from Tuesday’s poor close. The grains were posting solid gains throughout the session but faded those gains going into the close Tuesday. Light selling overnight also came from a calmer tone in the war as only minor attacks were reported Tuesday night. Late session support spilled over from the other grains. Light support also came from a report released by a Ukraine Ag Consult stating that Ukraine’s wheat exports could fall to 5 to 10 MMT vs last year’s 14 MMT due to the recent attacks and shipping issues.
On Thursday wheat opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure to push higher. Selling was due to spill over pressure from the other grains as well as from technical buying. Wheat shook off the early selling pressure and rallied due to spillover support from the higher corn complex. Support also came from war concerns as the war between Ukraine and Russia continues to undermine the ability of both countries to ship out wheat. A better-than-expected export sales estimate added some support. Wheat demand needs to continue to see improvement, or it is likely wheat will not hold the war premium. Sept Mpls wheat is currently 30 cents from this summer’s high.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.9825 up 20.0 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.815 up 6.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.5625 up 2.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments August 21
Wheat Weekly Comments August 21
Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chiago was higher. By the end of the night session, the winter wheat exchanges were lower while Mpls was higher. Early support came from another escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Reports had Ukraine conducting a massive drone attack on Russia overnight which was answered by Russia attacking export facilities in Odessa. Wheat faded its gains during the day session as although the reports on the war are supportive wheat, it isn’t bullish wheat unless the US sees export interest. Expectations that Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will not bring anything new to the table added late session pressure.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the session steady to lower but reversed direction and traded with gains by the end of the night session. Selling was due to spill over pressure from Monday’s disappointing performance. Light selling also came from a slightly negative Crop Progress report. The Crop Progress report showed solid harvest progress for both spring wheat and for winter wheat. A better-than-expected crop rating for spring wheat added pressure. An escalation in the war between the US and Iran as well as another activate night of drone attacks by Ukraine in Russia added support. Wheat faded its gains late in the session due to the lack of follow though as well as pressure from spill over selling from a fading corn and soybean market.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower across the board and continued to trade in a quiet two-sided fashion throughout the night. Selling spilled over from Tuesday’s poor close. The grains were posting solid gains throughout the session but faded those gains going into the close Tuesday. Light selling overnight also came from a calmer tone in the war as only minor attacks were reported Tuesday night. Late session support spilled over from the other grains. Light support also came from a report released by a Ukraine Ag Consult stating that Ukraine’s wheat exports could fall to 5 to 10 MMT vs last year’s 14 MMT due to the recent attacks and shipping issues.
On Thursday wheat opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure to push higher. Selling was due to spill over pressure from the other grains as well as from technical buying. Wheat shook off the early selling pressure and rallied due to spillover support from the higher corn complex. Support also came from war concerns as the war between Ukraine and Russia continues to undermine the ability of both countries to ship out wheat. A better-than-expected export sales estimate added some support. Wheat demand needs to continue to see improvement, or it is likely wheat will not hold the war premium. Sept Mpls wheat is currently 30 cents from this summer’s high.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.9825 up 20.0 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.815 up 6.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.5625 up 2.0 cents.