In Monday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses. Fund selling pressured the market. Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower crude oil market. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China. Last week’s export shipments at 89.8 MB were near the top of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date shipments are 56% ahead of last year’s pace as China’s purchases are off to a much faster start than last marketing year. USDA reported Sept crush at 198.6 MB vs. the average trade estimate of 200.7 MB and last Sept’s 204.9 MB. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 56% complete vs. 42% last week and 47% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with small losses. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report did not provide any supportive news. Soybean harvest is 88% complete vs. 84% average, and no states are showing big delays in harvest. Uncertainty ahead of today’s election also kept the market from moving too much in either direction. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 134,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. China met with a US ag trade delegation yesterday, but reports were that little progress was made. Traders questioned data in Monday’s USDA Sept crush report, especially for soybean meal. NASS said they will review the numbers but gave no timeline for updates.
On Wednesday soybeans dropped sharply lower at the start of the overnight session, then trimmed some of the losses only to fade again in the day session and close with double-digit losses. Pressure came from the sharply lower crude oil market, which pulled all of the oilseeds lower. Expectations of a huge crop added pressure. StoneX now estimates the US soybean yield at 55.0 bu., up 0.9 bu. from last month and 1.9 bu. higher than USDA’s October estimate. The Nov. USDA report will be released on Nov. 10. StoneX also updated their estimate of Brazil’s production, now at 184.95 MMT vs. 183.4 MMT previously and 182.6 MMT last year due to an increase in both acres and yield. The one bright spot today was USDA’s report of a sale of 167,000 MT of soybeans to Spain.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, but as usual these days, lost ground in the day session and closed with double-digit losses and dropped below the $12.00 mark. Pressure came from expectations of a big crop as traders expect to see the soybean yield and production increase in next week’s report. Good growing conditions in South America added pressure. Losses were limited by another solid week of export sales. Marketing year to date sales of 1.111 BB are running 76% ahead of last year’s pace. That’s due to China buying 15.9 MMT of soybeans this year vs. just 232,000 MT at the same time last year.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for soybean yield is 53.5 bu. (range of estimates was 52.9 to 55.0 bu.) vs. 53.1 bu. last month and production at 4.599 BB vs. 4.562 BB last month. The average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 332 MB vs. 315 MB last month. The average trade estimate for world ending stocks is 124.9 MMT vs. 124.3 MMT last month.
Jan soybean support is at $12.00.
For the week, Jan soybeans were at $11.9375 down 40.5 cents while Mar soybeans were at $11.9925 down 44.5 cents. Dec soybean meal at $319.20 down $5.40 and Dec soybean oil was at $62.26 down $3.64.
Soybean Weekly Comments November 6
Soybean Weekly Comments November 6
In Monday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses. Fund selling pressured the market. Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower crude oil market. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China. Last week’s export shipments at 89.8 MB were near the top of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date shipments are 56% ahead of last year’s pace as China’s purchases are off to a much faster start than last marketing year. USDA reported Sept crush at 198.6 MB vs. the average trade estimate of 200.7 MB and last Sept’s 204.9 MB. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 56% complete vs. 42% last week and 47% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with small losses. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report did not provide any supportive news. Soybean harvest is 88% complete vs. 84% average, and no states are showing big delays in harvest. Uncertainty ahead of today’s election also kept the market from moving too much in either direction. Losses were limited by USDA’s report of a sale of 134,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. China met with a US ag trade delegation yesterday, but reports were that little progress was made. Traders questioned data in Monday’s USDA Sept crush report, especially for soybean meal. NASS said they will review the numbers but gave no timeline for updates.
On Wednesday soybeans dropped sharply lower at the start of the overnight session, then trimmed some of the losses only to fade again in the day session and close with double-digit losses. Pressure came from the sharply lower crude oil market, which pulled all of the oilseeds lower. Expectations of a huge crop added pressure. StoneX now estimates the US soybean yield at 55.0 bu., up 0.9 bu. from last month and 1.9 bu. higher than USDA’s October estimate. The Nov. USDA report will be released on Nov. 10. StoneX also updated their estimate of Brazil’s production, now at 184.95 MMT vs. 183.4 MMT previously and 182.6 MMT last year due to an increase in both acres and yield. The one bright spot today was USDA’s report of a sale of 167,000 MT of soybeans to Spain.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, but as usual these days, lost ground in the day session and closed with double-digit losses and dropped below the $12.00 mark. Pressure came from expectations of a big crop as traders expect to see the soybean yield and production increase in next week’s report. Good growing conditions in South America added pressure. Losses were limited by another solid week of export sales. Marketing year to date sales of 1.111 BB are running 76% ahead of last year’s pace. That’s due to China buying 15.9 MMT of soybeans this year vs. just 232,000 MT at the same time last year.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for soybean yield is 53.5 bu. (range of estimates was 52.9 to 55.0 bu.) vs. 53.1 bu. last month and production at 4.599 BB vs. 4.562 BB last month. The average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 332 MB vs. 315 MB last month. The average trade estimate for world ending stocks is 124.9 MMT vs. 124.3 MMT last month.
Jan soybean support is at $12.00.
For the week, Jan soybeans were at $11.9375 down 40.5 cents while Mar soybeans were at $11.9925 down 44.5 cents. Dec soybean meal at $319.20 down $5.40 and Dec soybean oil was at $62.26 down $3.64.