Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments August 29

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments August 29

To start the week canola spent the overnight session on the higher side but started to erase the gains in the day session. The market fell throughout the day session and closed solidly lower. Pressure came from the losses in the soybean complex, and the higher Canadian dollar added pressure. Canola harvest is slowly getting underway across the Canadian Prairies. Alberta reported less than 1% of its canola has been combined. Dry conditions this week will help keep harvest advancing.

In Tuesday’s session canola traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market fell lower throughout most of the day session but was able to trim the losses a bit into the close. Pressure came from the steep losses in the soybean oil market, as well as from the lower Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets. Positioning ahead of Thursday’s Stats Canada report was also seen. Manitoba reported their canola harvest at 1% complete with early yields ranging from 45 bu. to 60 bu.

Canola traded back and forth and mostly on the lower side in a choppy session and closed with losses on Wednesday. Losses in the soybean complex pressured canola. Pressure also came from positioning ahead of tomorrow’s Stats Canada production estimates. Traders expect to see an increase in canola production. The Premier of Saskatchewan will lead a trade mission to Asia (including China) the second week of Sept.

On Thursday canola gapped slightly lower at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the lower side. The losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed solidly lower. Pressure came from the morning’s Stats Canada report, which estimated canola production at 19.9 MMT, lower than the average trade estimate of 20.3 MMT but 3.6% higher than last year and the largest crop since 2018. Harvested acres were estimated at 21.4 million, down 2.0% from last year, but yield was 5.7% higher than last year at 41.0 bu/acre. Losses in the soybean oil market added pressure. Saskatchewan reported their canola harvest at 1% complete.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $26.00. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $20.15. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $19.42.

As of August 24, North Dakota’s sunflower crop condition rating decreased 5% to 67% g/e, 31% fair, and 2% p/vp.

As of August 24, North Dakota’s canola crop condition rating was unchanged at 63% g/e, 33% fair, and 4% p/vp. Canola harvest is 20% complete vs. 5% last week and 17% average.

For the week, November canola was at $626.40 down $40.10 and January canola was at $638.30 down $20.10.

For the month, November canola was down $69.00 and January canola was down $67.60.

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