Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments March 14

Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments March 14

To start the week canola gapped sharply lower at the start of the overnight session at stayed at that level. The March contract was limit down $40.00. Over the weekend China announced retaliatory tariffs on Canada after Canada put tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum last October. China’s tariffs go into effect on March 20 and include a 100% tariff on canola oil and canola meal and that pulled the market sharply lower. China did not put a tariff on canola seed, but more tariffs may be coming.

In Tuesday’s session canola was mostly higher overnight and lost ground in the day session. The market was able to trim losses late in the session but still closed solidly lower. The May contract closed below $600 for the first time since the end of November. The market was still reeling from yesterday’s announcement that China is putting 100% tariffs on canola oil and canola meal coming from Canada. The lower soybean complex, as well as the lower Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets added pressure.

Canola traded around unchanged at the beginning of the overnight session but then turned lower and faded for the rest of Wednesday’s session, closing solidly lower. Pressure continues to come from tariff concerns as China’s 100% canola oil and meal tariffs on Canadian canola are set to go into effect March 20. In addition, after President Trump put tariffs on all steel and aluminum coming into the US this morning, Canada retaliated with their own tariffs on US imports. Stats Canada estimates this spring’s planted canola acres at 21.6 million, higher than the average trade estimate of 21.06 million but 1.7% lower than last year.

On Thursday canola traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged in the first part of the overnight session. The market then gained some steam and hit the session highs early in the day session. But then canola fell lower for the rest of the session and closed with losses. Bargain buying supported the market early in the session. The higher soybean market added support. Canada crushed a record 11.37 MMT of canola in 2024, up 8% from the prior record from 2023. But tariff concerns still hang over the market and that pulled canola lower in the day session.

Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $26.75. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $17.80. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $16.41.

For the week, May canola was at $560.50 down $84.50 while July canola was at $573.90 down $80.00.

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