After the long weekend, canola opened lower at the start of the overnight session and then losses accelerated. The Nov. contract went limit down $45.00. Cooler heads prevailed in the day session and losses were trimmed but the market still closed sharply lower. Pressure came from news that China plans to start an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada. This is in retaliation of the 100% import tariffs Canada put on Chinese electric vehicles and the 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum. More than half of Canada’s canola production and over 70% of all export sales go to China. Gains in the soybean market limited losses.
Canola spent all of Wednesday’s session on the lower side and closed solidly lower. Pressure came from Tuesday’s announcement of China starting an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports to China in retaliation of tariffs Canada placed on Chinese goods. However, as Canada builds more crush plants exports will matter less. For the 2024/25 crop year one analyst expects to see 11 MMT to 12 MMT of canola crushed, leaving only 7 MMT to 8 MMT to export. Canada used to export over 10 MMT of canola a year. Manitoba estimates their canola harvest at 13% complete. The EU lowered their rapeseed production estimate from 17.3 MMT to 16.9 MMT, quite a bit lower than last year’s 20.0 MMT. They also lowered their sunflower production from 9.65 MMT to 9.3 MMT.
In Thursday’s session canola was lower for most of the overnight session but shot higher at the start of the day session and then held those gains into the close. Bargain buying after two days of steep losses supported canola. Saskatchewan reported their canola harvest at 16% complete. Early reports of yields coming in lower-than-expected added support. Harvest is just getting underway in the Black Sea region and Oil World lowered their sunflower production estimate for Russia to 17.1 MMT vs. 18.4 MMT last year and has Ukraine at 13.4 MMT vs. 14.9 MMT last year.
Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $17.75. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $18.55. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $18.06.
As of Sept. 1, North Dakota’s sunflowers blooming were at 95% vs. 90% last week and 98% average. Ray flowers dry were at 42% vs. 12% last week and 57% average. Bracts turned yellow were at 5% vs. 24% average. The sunflower crop condition rating decreased 1% to 72% g/e, 22% fair, and 6% p/vp.
As of Sept. 1, North Dakota’s canola coloring was at 89% vs. 84% last week and 95% average. Canola harvested was at 24% vs. 14% last week and 32% average. Canola’s crop condition rating decreased 3% to 73% g/e, 23% fair, and 4% p/vp.
For the week, Nov. canola was at $569.20 down $45.50 and Jan. canola was at $580.90 down $42.90.
Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments Sept 6
Canola/Sunflower Weekly Comments Sept 6
After the long weekend, canola opened lower at the start of the overnight session and then losses accelerated. The Nov. contract went limit down $45.00. Cooler heads prevailed in the day session and losses were trimmed but the market still closed sharply lower. Pressure came from news that China plans to start an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada. This is in retaliation of the 100% import tariffs Canada put on Chinese electric vehicles and the 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum. More than half of Canada’s canola production and over 70% of all export sales go to China. Gains in the soybean market limited losses.
Canola spent all of Wednesday’s session on the lower side and closed solidly lower. Pressure came from Tuesday’s announcement of China starting an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports to China in retaliation of tariffs Canada placed on Chinese goods. However, as Canada builds more crush plants exports will matter less. For the 2024/25 crop year one analyst expects to see 11 MMT to 12 MMT of canola crushed, leaving only 7 MMT to 8 MMT to export. Canada used to export over 10 MMT of canola a year. Manitoba estimates their canola harvest at 13% complete. The EU lowered their rapeseed production estimate from 17.3 MMT to 16.9 MMT, quite a bit lower than last year’s 20.0 MMT. They also lowered their sunflower production from 9.65 MMT to 9.3 MMT.
In Thursday’s session canola was lower for most of the overnight session but shot higher at the start of the day session and then held those gains into the close. Bargain buying after two days of steep losses supported canola. Saskatchewan reported their canola harvest at 16% complete. Early reports of yields coming in lower-than-expected added support. Harvest is just getting underway in the Black Sea region and Oil World lowered their sunflower production estimate for Russia to 17.1 MMT vs. 18.4 MMT last year and has Ukraine at 13.4 MMT vs. 14.9 MMT last year.
Thursday’s cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $17.75. Cash canola bids in West Fargo were at $18.55. Cash canola bids in Velva were at $18.06.
As of Sept. 1, North Dakota’s sunflowers blooming were at 95% vs. 90% last week and 98% average. Ray flowers dry were at 42% vs. 12% last week and 57% average. Bracts turned yellow were at 5% vs. 24% average. The sunflower crop condition rating decreased 1% to 72% g/e, 22% fair, and 6% p/vp.
As of Sept. 1, North Dakota’s canola coloring was at 89% vs. 84% last week and 95% average. Canola harvested was at 24% vs. 14% last week and 32% average. Canola’s crop condition rating decreased 3% to 73% g/e, 23% fair, and 4% p/vp.
For the week, Nov. canola was at $569.20 down $45.50 and Jan. canola was at $580.90 down $42.90.