Cattle Weekly Comments Dec 13

Cattle Weekly Comments Dec 13

Live cattle pushed higher for the first three sessions of the week but faded toward the end of the week. Early support was due to a sharply higher cash trade while late week pressure came from technical selling. Feeder cattle started the week steady to higher, pushed higher in the middle of the week, but faded by the end of the week. Strong cash bids in the country supported feeders early in the week, but late week losses were due to technical selling as well as from rumors that the US will reopen the border to Mexican cattle soon.

Cattle opened week steady to higher and managed to shake off early selling pressure and rallied to post solid gains in the early part of the session. But once the grains found footing and rallied, cattle came under pressure. Light selling was also tied to reports that the US and Mexico are about ready to reopen the border to Mexican cattle. The lack of a cash trade added pressure to the live cattle. Last week’s cash trade took place, up $1 to $2 from the previous week.

Buying took center stage on Tuesday as cattle opened the session steady to higher, waffled around the session early, but then found solid footing around midsession. Tight supplies and strong demand continue to support cattle. The lack of a cash trade pressure live cattle early. Feeder cattle cash activity was reported at lower prices, but that did not keep the futures from pushing higher, nor did the higher corn. In their Dec Crop Production report, USDA is estimating 2023 beef production at 27.03 billion pounds. 2024 production at 27.1 billion pounds (up 10 million pounds from last month). 2025 beef production is estimated at 25.7 billion pounds (down 615 million pounds from last month).

Live cattle took charge midweek, pushing sharply higher for the second session in a row. Cash trade has been slow to develop this week, but Kansas saw trade at $191 while NE is reporting cash activity between $195 and $196. Boxed beef prices were mixed with Choice higher and Select lower.

Pressure found its way into the cattle market on Thursday with selling tied to technical selling and profit taking. Cattle opened the session higher across the board and traded with decent gains early in the session. Early support came from reports of a strong cash trade. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 10,989 MT. Profit taking pulled the cattle off their highs late in the session and technical selling kept the cattle on the defense. Managed money continues to hold near record long position in live cattle and record long in feeder cattle. That along with the potential opening of the US Mexico border is enough of a concern for producers to look to put floors under cattle.

By the close, Dec live cattle were at $193.65 up $6.275. Jan feeder cattle were at $257.65 up $1.825.

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