Cattle Weekly Comments February 6

Cattle Weekly Comments February 6

Cattle opened the week posting strong gains and continued to push higher through Wednesday. Support came from what was deemed as a bullish Cattle Inventory report. The report confirmed another year of lower cattle numbers and a much slower heifer retention pace than expected. Technical selling combined with news that a processing plant in CO might go on strike to bring cattle lower to close out the week ending Thursday.

Cattle gapped higher to start the week and then pushed higher throughout the rest of the session. Support came from Friday’s friendly Cattle Inventory report. The report continues to show a slightly shrinking cattle herd, but more importantly slow expansion. Light support also came from a lower grain complex. Last week’s late surge in the cash market added support. By the time the dust settled last week, cash traded between $238 and $240.

Buying continued in the cattle market on Tuesday with early support coming from technical buying as cattle traders try to push cattle higher to test previous contract highs. Gains were trimmed late in the session from reports of a new world screw worm being found in an imported horse from Argentina. The protocols worked and the horse is in quarantine.

A quieter session took place midweek with cattle opening mixed as live cattle starting the session with gains while feeder cattle started the session lower. Live cattle were supported by a strong cash trade while feeder cattle were pressured by a stronger grain complex. It felt like a bit of a victory that cattle did not see major pressure early in the session due to reports of a new screw worm larvae being found in an imported horse from Argentina earlier in the week. Tight supplies and strong demand continue to put a floor under cattle.

The floor in the cattle seemed to fall apart going into the close of the week. Cattle opened Thursday’s session lower across the board and never really looked back. Early selling was tied to technical selling as traders took profits off the table. Selling pressure expanded once cattle broke through minor support, triggering algorithms which only enhanced the selloff. Light selling was tied to reports that a JBS processing plant in CO voted to strike due to unfair labor practices following more than 8 months of stalled negotiations. No strike has been called at this time. Cash trade remains quiet this week. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 19,748 MT, which is the largest beef export sales so far this year.

The CME cash feeder cattle index was down 44 cents at $374.57.

For the week, February live cattle closed at $237.75 up $1.90. March feeder cattle closed at $367.425 up $7.15.

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