Cattle opened and closed out the week ending Thursday, posting gains but saw heavy losses in the middle of the week that kept this week’s gains in check. Cattle have retreated the past 3 weeks in a row, posting heavy losses each week due to heavy fund selling. But this week cattle were able to slow down the retreat as the market tries to price in what is expected to be friendly numbers from USDA.
The week started with cattle finally being able to break their downward spiral. After Aug live cattle closed with losses for 16 straight session and closing lower in 20 out of the previous 21 sessions, losing close to $25.80, buying returned to the live cattle complex. Aug feeder cattle closed lower in 13 of the last 16 sessions, losing $33.80. Technically buying helped give cattle support as traders try to correct oversold market condition. Futures steep discount to cash added support. Last week’s cash activity took place between $238 and $240. The funds continue to be long cattle, but they have trimmed their net long position. As stated before, fundamentals in cattle remain strong. Heavy fund selling and poor looking technicals have caused a majority of the selling.
Tuesday’s session saw cattle open the session higher and extended session gains, but cattle ran into resistance which resulted in cattle to fade, and trade mixed for most of the day. Futures steep discount to cash gave support. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of Friday’s report was also evident.
Heavy selling pressure returned to the cattle market midweek. Cattle opened the session lower and extended session losses throughout the first half, posting heavy losses by noon. Early selling pressure was in response to another strong session in crude oil and softer performance in the Dow. Continued economic concerns have continued to push the funds to liquidate their long positions in cattle. The lack of a cash traded added pressure to the live cattle. A sharply higher grains complex added pressure to the feeder cattle.
Buying returned at the end of the week to help cattle almost guarantees that cattle could end the week on a positive note. Cattle opened the session mixed with the front month August contracts starting with gains while the deferred months opened lower. The front month was supported by the need to bring futures and cash more in line with each other as cash continues to hold a premium to futures. The deferred months were pressured by continued heavy fund selling. Last week’s beef export sales pace was a disappointing 9,377 MT. This week has seen a light cash trade take place at $230 to $232, which is a lot lower than last week’s activity that took place between $238 and $240. Profit taking and position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports added support.
Estimates for the COF report have On Feed at 102%, Placed at 99%, and Marketing at 97%.
There is no estimate released yet for the Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report.
As of July 19, pasture and range conditions were rated at 29% g/e, 29% fair and 42% p/vp, down 1% from last week.
For the week, Aug live cattle closed at $227.075 up $2.65. Aug feeder cattle closed at $345.325 down 62.5 cents.
Cattle Weekly Comments July 24
Cattle Weekly Comments July 24
Cattle opened and closed out the week ending Thursday, posting gains but saw heavy losses in the middle of the week that kept this week’s gains in check. Cattle have retreated the past 3 weeks in a row, posting heavy losses each week due to heavy fund selling. But this week cattle were able to slow down the retreat as the market tries to price in what is expected to be friendly numbers from USDA.
The week started with cattle finally being able to break their downward spiral. After Aug live cattle closed with losses for 16 straight session and closing lower in 20 out of the previous 21 sessions, losing close to $25.80, buying returned to the live cattle complex. Aug feeder cattle closed lower in 13 of the last 16 sessions, losing $33.80. Technically buying helped give cattle support as traders try to correct oversold market condition. Futures steep discount to cash added support. Last week’s cash activity took place between $238 and $240. The funds continue to be long cattle, but they have trimmed their net long position. As stated before, fundamentals in cattle remain strong. Heavy fund selling and poor looking technicals have caused a majority of the selling.
Tuesday’s session saw cattle open the session higher and extended session gains, but cattle ran into resistance which resulted in cattle to fade, and trade mixed for most of the day. Futures steep discount to cash gave support. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of Friday’s report was also evident.
Heavy selling pressure returned to the cattle market midweek. Cattle opened the session lower and extended session losses throughout the first half, posting heavy losses by noon. Early selling pressure was in response to another strong session in crude oil and softer performance in the Dow. Continued economic concerns have continued to push the funds to liquidate their long positions in cattle. The lack of a cash traded added pressure to the live cattle. A sharply higher grains complex added pressure to the feeder cattle.
Buying returned at the end of the week to help cattle almost guarantees that cattle could end the week on a positive note. Cattle opened the session mixed with the front month August contracts starting with gains while the deferred months opened lower. The front month was supported by the need to bring futures and cash more in line with each other as cash continues to hold a premium to futures. The deferred months were pressured by continued heavy fund selling. Last week’s beef export sales pace was a disappointing 9,377 MT. This week has seen a light cash trade take place at $230 to $232, which is a lot lower than last week’s activity that took place between $238 and $240. Profit taking and position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports added support.
Estimates for the COF report have On Feed at 102%, Placed at 99%, and Marketing at 97%.
There is no estimate released yet for the Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report.
As of July 19, pasture and range conditions were rated at 29% g/e, 29% fair and 42% p/vp, down 1% from last week.
For the week, Aug live cattle closed at $227.075 up $2.65. Aug feeder cattle closed at $345.325 down 62.5 cents.