Cash has been the main driver in the cattle market this past week. That was evident by watching the front month June live cattle futures contract. June live cattle are in delivery and have been very responsive to the changes in cash. With cash bids increasing this week, June futures went along for the ride while August faded lower. Tight supplies and strong demand helped give feeders strength.
Cattle started the week on the plus side. Live cattle gapped higher on the opening bell but quickly reversed only to see buying return and push to close at new all-time highs. Feeder cattle opened the session higher but like the live cattle faded lower only to recover and rally to end the session at new all-time highs. Last week’s strong cash trade helped give cattle support. Last week’s cash activity took place between $240 and $242, with some as high as $244. Light selling hit the cattle midsession with selling tied to April’s disappointing export sales report. April’s beef exports were estimated at 237.2 million pounds, down 9% from last year (Japan up 8%, South Korea up 5%, Canada down 14%, Mexico down 10%, and China down 68%). Beef imports were up 45% year over year at 474.5 million pounds with the main sources being Brazil, Australia, and New Zeeland. Technically cattle are back in no man’s land and in uncharted territory.
Selling moved into the live cattle market on Tuesday while feeder cattle were able to continue to push higher. Cattle traded on both sides of the fence, with support coming from the second verse of the same song, strong demand, strong cash bids, and tight supplies. Gains were kept in check by technical selling as traders try to correct an overbought condition. A stronger corn complex added pressure. Feeder cattle were able to recover from their losses as every retracement gets met with buying and today was no exception.
The front month June live cattle are in delivery and continue to be tied to cash, which helped support that month. The remaining cattle contracts opened lower and traded softer in the first half of the session but then bounced off of their lows to recover most of their losses, but still close in the red. Feeder cattle started the session lower and extended losses throughout the first half of the session. Feeders were able to bounce off session lows and stage a minor recovery, but still remained in the red. Tuesday’s sloppy session and part of the pressure was due to rumors that ICE officials raided a beef processing plant in NE. This has traders concerned that this trend could continue to other plants, which would disrupt slaughter runs. Technical selling was evident as was light profit taking as traders take money off the table after pushing cattle to new all-time highs yesterday.
Cash continued to give cattle direction to close out the week. Thursday’s session had the front month contracts in both live cand feeder cattle posting gains while the deferred contracts faded lower. Traders continue to try and bring futures and cash more in line with each other. Technical selling created the most pressure as both live cattle and feeder cattle are overbought and in need of a correction. It seems like cattle want to retrace lower, but the consistent resurgence of buying on breaks along with strong cash activity keeps the cattle market from selling off. Light selling was also tied to the concern that ICE was going to continue to raid slaughterhouses, which disrupts the day. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 15,337 MT, an eight week high.
In their June Crop Production report, USDA left 2024 beef production was unchanged at 27.051 billion pounds. 2025 beef production declined 65 million pounds from the previous month to 26.425 billion pounds. 2026 beef production increased 135 million pounds from the previous month to 25.342 billion pounds. But as expected beef production continues to slip lower than the previous year.
As of June 8, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 43% g/e, 26% fair, and 31% p/vp, up 1% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $225.10 down $1.20. August feeder cattle closed at $306.425 down $3.725.
Cattle Weekly Comments June 13
Cattle Weekly Comments June 13
Cash has been the main driver in the cattle market this past week. That was evident by watching the front month June live cattle futures contract. June live cattle are in delivery and have been very responsive to the changes in cash. With cash bids increasing this week, June futures went along for the ride while August faded lower. Tight supplies and strong demand helped give feeders strength.
Cattle started the week on the plus side. Live cattle gapped higher on the opening bell but quickly reversed only to see buying return and push to close at new all-time highs. Feeder cattle opened the session higher but like the live cattle faded lower only to recover and rally to end the session at new all-time highs. Last week’s strong cash trade helped give cattle support. Last week’s cash activity took place between $240 and $242, with some as high as $244. Light selling hit the cattle midsession with selling tied to April’s disappointing export sales report. April’s beef exports were estimated at 237.2 million pounds, down 9% from last year (Japan up 8%, South Korea up 5%, Canada down 14%, Mexico down 10%, and China down 68%). Beef imports were up 45% year over year at 474.5 million pounds with the main sources being Brazil, Australia, and New Zeeland. Technically cattle are back in no man’s land and in uncharted territory.
Selling moved into the live cattle market on Tuesday while feeder cattle were able to continue to push higher. Cattle traded on both sides of the fence, with support coming from the second verse of the same song, strong demand, strong cash bids, and tight supplies. Gains were kept in check by technical selling as traders try to correct an overbought condition. A stronger corn complex added pressure. Feeder cattle were able to recover from their losses as every retracement gets met with buying and today was no exception.
The front month June live cattle are in delivery and continue to be tied to cash, which helped support that month. The remaining cattle contracts opened lower and traded softer in the first half of the session but then bounced off of their lows to recover most of their losses, but still close in the red. Feeder cattle started the session lower and extended losses throughout the first half of the session. Feeders were able to bounce off session lows and stage a minor recovery, but still remained in the red. Tuesday’s sloppy session and part of the pressure was due to rumors that ICE officials raided a beef processing plant in NE. This has traders concerned that this trend could continue to other plants, which would disrupt slaughter runs. Technical selling was evident as was light profit taking as traders take money off the table after pushing cattle to new all-time highs yesterday.
Cash continued to give cattle direction to close out the week. Thursday’s session had the front month contracts in both live cand feeder cattle posting gains while the deferred contracts faded lower. Traders continue to try and bring futures and cash more in line with each other. Technical selling created the most pressure as both live cattle and feeder cattle are overbought and in need of a correction. It seems like cattle want to retrace lower, but the consistent resurgence of buying on breaks along with strong cash activity keeps the cattle market from selling off. Light selling was also tied to the concern that ICE was going to continue to raid slaughterhouses, which disrupts the day. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 15,337 MT, an eight week high.
In their June Crop Production report, USDA left 2024 beef production was unchanged at 27.051 billion pounds. 2025 beef production declined 65 million pounds from the previous month to 26.425 billion pounds. 2026 beef production increased 135 million pounds from the previous month to 25.342 billion pounds. But as expected beef production continues to slip lower than the previous year.
As of June 8, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 43% g/e, 26% fair, and 31% p/vp, up 1% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $225.10 down $1.20. August feeder cattle closed at $306.425 down $3.725.