Cattle traded with gains to start the week and to close out the short week on Wednesday but lost significant ground midweek. The usual suspects continue to give cattle support; strong demand, solid cash bids, tight supplies, and position squaring ahead of the June COF report. Pressure came from a shake up in the stock market as traders become a bit uneasy about the military actions in the Middle East.
Cattle opened the week higher and extended gains throughout the session. Early support came from technical buying as once cattle traded to a minor support line, buyers reentered on the long side to help cattle bounce higher. Volatility is increasing in cattle are at this point may be the fundamental have taken cattle as high as they can and now maybe the technical side has more influence on direction. Look for August live cattle to test $217.60 and August feeder cattle to test $311.15. If they cross over those levels, the rally likely has more legs, but if those levels hold, maybe this market could see a sizable retracement. Fundamentals remain friendly as strong cash bids continue to be fueled by strong demand and tight supplies.
Tuesday’s session did not see the live cattle market gap lower on the opening bell, but the contract did fade the opening and continued to stair step lower throughout the session. Feeder cattle did gap lower on the opening bell and continued to free fall throughout the session. Technical selling took charge as cattle started on the defense and then started hitting computer generated sell orders which accelerated the selloff. By midsession the algorithms were showing selling which sped up the fall. Volatility in the cattle markets is increasing dramatically and that is a sign that top could be on the horizon. Position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report was also evident.
Technical buying returned to the cattle market on Wednesday as live cattle opened the session with gains and just continued to trade within its opening range throughout the session. Feeder cattle opened the session lower and extended session losses early but found support and bounced higher along with the live cattle. Support continues to come from the usual suspects, strong demand, higher cash, tight supplies, and a firm stock market. Gains were kept in check by this week’s poor technical performance. Position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report was also evident.
The June COF report was slightly friendly cattle as the on feed estimate and marketing estimate was as expected, but placements were 2% less than expected. This is friendly feeder cattle and the deferred live cattle months. Numbers for the report are: On Feed: 99% (as expected), Placed: 92% (2% less than expected), and Marketed: 90% as expected).
As of June 15, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 46% g/e, 26% fair, and 28% p/vp, up 3% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $223.025 down $2.075. August feeder cattle closed at $302.45 down $3.975.
Cattle Weekly Comments June 20
Cattle Weekly Comments June 20
Cattle traded with gains to start the week and to close out the short week on Wednesday but lost significant ground midweek. The usual suspects continue to give cattle support; strong demand, solid cash bids, tight supplies, and position squaring ahead of the June COF report. Pressure came from a shake up in the stock market as traders become a bit uneasy about the military actions in the Middle East.
Cattle opened the week higher and extended gains throughout the session. Early support came from technical buying as once cattle traded to a minor support line, buyers reentered on the long side to help cattle bounce higher. Volatility is increasing in cattle are at this point may be the fundamental have taken cattle as high as they can and now maybe the technical side has more influence on direction. Look for August live cattle to test $217.60 and August feeder cattle to test $311.15. If they cross over those levels, the rally likely has more legs, but if those levels hold, maybe this market could see a sizable retracement. Fundamentals remain friendly as strong cash bids continue to be fueled by strong demand and tight supplies.
Tuesday’s session did not see the live cattle market gap lower on the opening bell, but the contract did fade the opening and continued to stair step lower throughout the session. Feeder cattle did gap lower on the opening bell and continued to free fall throughout the session. Technical selling took charge as cattle started on the defense and then started hitting computer generated sell orders which accelerated the selloff. By midsession the algorithms were showing selling which sped up the fall. Volatility in the cattle markets is increasing dramatically and that is a sign that top could be on the horizon. Position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report was also evident.
Technical buying returned to the cattle market on Wednesday as live cattle opened the session with gains and just continued to trade within its opening range throughout the session. Feeder cattle opened the session lower and extended session losses early but found support and bounced higher along with the live cattle. Support continues to come from the usual suspects, strong demand, higher cash, tight supplies, and a firm stock market. Gains were kept in check by this week’s poor technical performance. Position squaring ahead of Friday’s COF report was also evident.
The June COF report was slightly friendly cattle as the on feed estimate and marketing estimate was as expected, but placements were 2% less than expected. This is friendly feeder cattle and the deferred live cattle months. Numbers for the report are: On Feed: 99% (as expected), Placed: 92% (2% less than expected), and Marketed: 90% as expected).
As of June 15, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 46% g/e, 26% fair, and 28% p/vp, up 3% from last year at this time.
For the week, June live cattle closed at $223.025 down $2.075. August feeder cattle closed at $302.45 down $3.975.