Cattle Weekly Comments Oct 18

Cattle Weekly Comments Oct 18

Cattle lost ground three out of four sessions this week, posting losses by the end of Thursday’s close. Technical selling combined with production concerns to pressure the cattle markets this week.

Cattle opened the week mixed with live cattle on the defense while feeder cattle were slightly higher. Early pressure for the live cattle came from Friday’s negative Crop Production report, which once again showed another increase in beef production. Feeder cattle were supported by a weaker grain complex. Live cattle were able to shake off the selling pressure and push higher due to last week’s strong cash trade. Feeder cattle were pressured late in the session from seasonal pressure as this is the time of year when sale runs start to increase.

Heavy selling pressure hot both cattle contracts Tuesday as cattle opened the session lower and extended losses through the day. The lack of a cash trade with week pressured live cattle, but expectations that cash will trade at or above last week’s levels helped limit losses. Friday’s Crop Production report, which showed increasing beef production, continues to pressure live cattle. Technical selling was also evident as traders took profits off the table in an attempt to correct an overbought condition. Expectations of increased supplies of feeder cattle pressured feeders throughout the day.

Cattle traded in different directions mid-week with live cattle ending higher while feeder cattle slipped lower. Cattle opened mixed with live cattle higher while feeder cattle started lower. Live cattle were support by expectations of a firm cash trade. Feeder cattle opened the session lower due to spill over pressure from the higher grain complex. Technically cattle look tired and appear ready to stage a retracement, but tight supplies and strong demand continue to put underlining support under cattle. Seasonally feeder cattle pull back this time of year as supplies start to increase, but so far cattle are holding up well against the hedge selling pressure.

Thursday’s session ended opposite of Wednesday with live cattle ending lower while feeder cattle closed higher. Live cattle were higher for the first part of the session before fading and turning lower. The market was able to trim most of the losses late in the session but still closed lower. Feeder cattle ended the session mixed with gains in the front months and losses in the deferred contracts. Online fed cattle exchange auction had no sales with bids running $183 to $185. Boxed beef prices were higher.

As of October 13, Pasture and Range Conditions were estimated at 22% g/e, 29% fair, and 49% v/vp. 3% below last week.

For the week, October live cattle were at $186.75 down $1.85. October feeder cattle closed at $248.325 down $1.425.

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