Cattle posted more lower sessions this week, but the one day the market saw strong gains that were large enough to overshadow the other three lower sessions. Cattle seem to be slowly trying to build premium back into the market, but outside influence continues to bring traders back to reality.
To start the week, cattle opened the session lower across the board with early selling tied to pressure from the higher grains complex. Live cattle were pressured by the lack of a cash trade. Last week’s cash activity took place between $220 and $222. Feeder cattle were pressured by a strong grain complex.
Tuesday’s session had cattle opening higher and extended session gains throughout the session. Early support spilled over from the push to another new all-time contract high in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Technical buying was also evident as once cattle traded above resistance levels, buy stops were triggered, which accelerated the gains. Live cattle gains were kept in check by the lack of a cash trade.
Wednesday’s session saw the return of selling as cattle opened the session lower and continued to post losses throughout the session. Cattle did trade with small gains early, but the selling pressure kept cattle on the defense. Selling was more tied to technical pressure than anything today as it appears that most of the selling was tied to profit taking and risk off positioning. Losses were kept in check by lower-than-expected imports. Although the administration is allowing beef imports to reach 100,000 MT duty free for Sept, Oct, and Nov. Sept only hit the 40% of quota and it appears that Oct will fall short as well. Aug beef imports were up 34% year over year with Argentina imports were up 270%, Australia was up 27%, and Brazil was up 132%. Cash has not yet developed as of yet.
Although cattle still closed lower to close out the week Thursday, both contracts closed well off session lows. Cattle opened the session mixed with live cattle mixed while feeder cattle started steady to higher. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from a sharply higher crude oil market. Crude rallied on news that Trump was looking to stage another military attack on Iran, which sent crude sharply higher. Attitudes changed late in the afternoon as Trump backed away from the military action, which allowed crude to fade off highs, which supported a late surge in cattle. Technically cattle appear to be looking to climb higher, but the accent has been slow. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 12,996 MT. No cash trade has developed this week. Last week’s cash activity took place between $220 and $222. The cash feeder cattle index closed at $337.87.
As of Oct 4, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 23% g/e, 28% fair, and 49% p/vp, up 4% from the previous week.
For the week, Oct live cattle contracts closed at $224.975 up $6.125 while the Oct feeder cattle contract closed at $343.85 up $9.225.
Cattle Weekly Comments October 9
Cattle Weekly Comments October 9
Cattle posted more lower sessions this week, but the one day the market saw strong gains that were large enough to overshadow the other three lower sessions. Cattle seem to be slowly trying to build premium back into the market, but outside influence continues to bring traders back to reality.
To start the week, cattle opened the session lower across the board with early selling tied to pressure from the higher grains complex. Live cattle were pressured by the lack of a cash trade. Last week’s cash activity took place between $220 and $222. Feeder cattle were pressured by a strong grain complex.
Tuesday’s session had cattle opening higher and extended session gains throughout the session. Early support spilled over from the push to another new all-time contract high in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Technical buying was also evident as once cattle traded above resistance levels, buy stops were triggered, which accelerated the gains. Live cattle gains were kept in check by the lack of a cash trade.
Wednesday’s session saw the return of selling as cattle opened the session lower and continued to post losses throughout the session. Cattle did trade with small gains early, but the selling pressure kept cattle on the defense. Selling was more tied to technical pressure than anything today as it appears that most of the selling was tied to profit taking and risk off positioning. Losses were kept in check by lower-than-expected imports. Although the administration is allowing beef imports to reach 100,000 MT duty free for Sept, Oct, and Nov. Sept only hit the 40% of quota and it appears that Oct will fall short as well. Aug beef imports were up 34% year over year with Argentina imports were up 270%, Australia was up 27%, and Brazil was up 132%. Cash has not yet developed as of yet.
Although cattle still closed lower to close out the week Thursday, both contracts closed well off session lows. Cattle opened the session mixed with live cattle mixed while feeder cattle started steady to higher. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from a sharply higher crude oil market. Crude rallied on news that Trump was looking to stage another military attack on Iran, which sent crude sharply higher. Attitudes changed late in the afternoon as Trump backed away from the military action, which allowed crude to fade off highs, which supported a late surge in cattle. Technically cattle appear to be looking to climb higher, but the accent has been slow. Last week’s beef export sales pace was estimated at 12,996 MT. No cash trade has developed this week. Last week’s cash activity took place between $220 and $222. The cash feeder cattle index closed at $337.87.
As of Oct 4, pasture and range conditions were estimated at 23% g/e, 28% fair, and 49% p/vp, up 4% from the previous week.
For the week, Oct live cattle contracts closed at $224.975 up $6.125 while the Oct feeder cattle contract closed at $343.85 up $9.225.