Cattle Weekly Comments Sept 6

Cattle Weekly Comments Sept 6

Cattle started the short week posting gains but faded those gains midweek which led to the cattle markets collapsing on Thursday. Early support came from the expectation that this week’s cash trade would occur at steady money as packers are short bought and in need of product. With this being a shorter kill week and with increasing slaughter weights, most packers are likely good this week but will need to entice product movement next week.

Cattle opened the short week posting solid gains across the board in both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Early strength was tied to a strong boxed beef market. A strong boxed beef market is a signal of strong domestic demand, which many were hoping to see after what is considered the last summer holiday. Traders are hoping the higher boxed beef market will lead to higher cash prices this week as cash bids have been on the downward slide the past month. Gains were kept in check from increasing carcass weights as well as from a stronger grain complex.

Selling returned to the cattle market midweek. The live cattle market ended the session with minor losses while feeder cattle took a bigger hit. The lack of a cash trade put pressure on the live cattle market but that pressure was slightly offset by reports of higher boxed beef prices. A lower stock market weighed on the live cattle market. Cattle put in a strong performance Tuesday, in the face of a lower financial sector. Packers are short bought and in need of product. This week is a short week so they won’t be in dire need of cattle, but next week they will likely need to entice feedlot movement. Cash bids are reported to be lower in the south but steady in the north. Feeder cattle were pressured by a stronger grains complex. Expectations of increased auction runs added pressure as yearling cattle are starting to show up in the ring.

Heavy selling pressure hit both cattle contracts on Thursday. Cattle opened the session lower across the board and continued to extend losses throughout the session. Early selling was tied to reports of a lower cash trade as bids in the south were $2 lower than last week while bids in the north were off $3. Heavier carcass weights are adding to the pressure.

Imports of cattle from Canada and Mexico continues to add pressure was well. For July imports of cattle from Canada were up 39% over last July while imports from Mexico were up 65% from last year. Year to date cattle imports is up 23% with Canada’s imports up 185 and Mexico’s up 25%.

As of September 1, pasture and range conditions dropped 2% to 28% g/e, 30% fair, and 42% p/vp.

For the week, October live cattle are at $175.175 down $3.425. Sept feeder cattle were at $234.30 down $6.175.

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