To start the week corn gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then slowly drifted lower for the rest of the overnight and day session to close with losses. Pressure came from positioning ahead of Tuesday’s report. Private estimates for planted corn acres based on farmer surveys are coming in about 2 million acres higher than the average trade estimate of 94.4 million. Additionally, quarterly grain stocks are expected to be close to 1 billion bushels higher than March 1, 2025, stocks. Traders mostly ignored today’s friendly export demand news. USDA reported a sale of 145,000 MT of corn to an unknown destination and last week’s export sales were above the range of trade expectations and a 4-week high. In South American news, Brazil’s 2nd crop corn planting is at 98% compete vs. 97% average and 1st crop harvest is at 59% complete vs. 59% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn traded in a narrow range around unchanged overnight then turned lower at the start of the day session. Corn traded in a choppy fashion when the reports came out and closed with minor gains. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report wasn’t as bad as traders expected. March 1 stocks were 9.024 BB, 877 MB higher than last March but 80 MB lower than expected.
The Prospective Plantings report was negative corn. Acres came in at 95.3 million, 3.45 million lower than last year but 967,000 acres higher than expected. Most states are expected to see lower acres vs last year with ND down 6%, MN down 3%, and SD down 8%. Actual acres will likely by lower than the 95.3 million as most surveys were conducted before the increase in fuel and fertilizer prices due to the Iran conflict. Strong export demand kept corn higher, even though the plantings report was negative.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session with small gains but soon turned lower and slowly drifted lower for the rest of the overnight and into the day session and at one point saw 10 cent losses. The market started to trim losses midway through the day session and closed just a few cents lower. Like the rest of the grains, corn was pressured by money flow from the commodities to the outside markets. Losses were limited by ongoing solid export demand. Traders expect to see another week of strong exports in Thursday’s export sales report. April 1 is the crop insurance initial planting date for corn for some counties in IN, IL, MO, and KS.
Last week’s ethanol production was down 41,000 barrels per day to 1.075 million barrels per day. That drop was larger than expected. Ethanol stocks also dropped by 1.179 million barrels to 25.991 million barrels. Ethanol plants usually do maintenance in late March thru April and production seasonally decreases in that period.
Hedgers should target $4.95 Dec to make catch up sales and use $5.15 to advance 2026 sales.
May corn support is $4.35.
For the week, May corn was at $4.5225 down 9.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.8125 down 9.0 cents.
For the month, May corn was up 9.25 cents and Dec corn was up 14.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments April 2
Corn Weekly Comments April 2
To start the week corn gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then slowly drifted lower for the rest of the overnight and day session to close with losses. Pressure came from positioning ahead of Tuesday’s report. Private estimates for planted corn acres based on farmer surveys are coming in about 2 million acres higher than the average trade estimate of 94.4 million. Additionally, quarterly grain stocks are expected to be close to 1 billion bushels higher than March 1, 2025, stocks. Traders mostly ignored today’s friendly export demand news. USDA reported a sale of 145,000 MT of corn to an unknown destination and last week’s export sales were above the range of trade expectations and a 4-week high. In South American news, Brazil’s 2nd crop corn planting is at 98% compete vs. 97% average and 1st crop harvest is at 59% complete vs. 59% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn traded in a narrow range around unchanged overnight then turned lower at the start of the day session. Corn traded in a choppy fashion when the reports came out and closed with minor gains. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report wasn’t as bad as traders expected. March 1 stocks were 9.024 BB, 877 MB higher than last March but 80 MB lower than expected.
The Prospective Plantings report was negative corn. Acres came in at 95.3 million, 3.45 million lower than last year but 967,000 acres higher than expected. Most states are expected to see lower acres vs last year with ND down 6%, MN down 3%, and SD down 8%. Actual acres will likely by lower than the 95.3 million as most surveys were conducted before the increase in fuel and fertilizer prices due to the Iran conflict. Strong export demand kept corn higher, even though the plantings report was negative.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session with small gains but soon turned lower and slowly drifted lower for the rest of the overnight and into the day session and at one point saw 10 cent losses. The market started to trim losses midway through the day session and closed just a few cents lower. Like the rest of the grains, corn was pressured by money flow from the commodities to the outside markets. Losses were limited by ongoing solid export demand. Traders expect to see another week of strong exports in Thursday’s export sales report. April 1 is the crop insurance initial planting date for corn for some counties in IN, IL, MO, and KS.
Last week’s ethanol production was down 41,000 barrels per day to 1.075 million barrels per day. That drop was larger than expected. Ethanol stocks also dropped by 1.179 million barrels to 25.991 million barrels. Ethanol plants usually do maintenance in late March thru April and production seasonally decreases in that period.
Hedgers should target $4.95 Dec to make catch up sales and use $5.15 to advance 2026 sales.
May corn support is $4.35.
For the week, May corn was at $4.5225 down 9.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.8125 down 9.0 cents.
For the month, May corn was up 9.25 cents and Dec corn was up 14.75 cents.