To start the week corn opened the session higher and extended session gains throughout the night. But corn faded its gains once the day session got under way and by the close most months were sitting close to steady. Early support was due to technical buying make a move to test recent highs. Light support was due to the need to put more premium in corn as demand has continued to advance above expectations. Forecasts calling for cooler wetter conditions for a majority of the Corn Belt for the next 15 days added support. A sharply lower US dollar added support as this will make US corn more attractive in the export market. Gains were trimmed late due to profit taking and economic uncertainty. As of April 17, Brazil was reporting first crop corn harvest at 75% complete vs 70% last week and 75% average. Argentina was reporting corn harvest at 25% complete vs 22% last week and 23% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened steady and pushed to trade with small gains by the close of the night session. But once the day session started, corn turned lower and extended session losses throughout the first half of the day. Early support was due to weather forecasts calling for on and off showers to continue to move through the Corn Belt for the next 14 days. Gains were kept in check from the realization that corn planting is far enough ahead of average that a slight slowdown will not impact progress too much. A slight dry down to the forecasts added pressure once the day session started. Losses were trimmed slightly by comments by the Treasury stating that the tariff tit for tat with China is not sustainable and that a compromise will occur soon.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session higher but faded to trade lower by the end of the night. Early support was due to talk of a de-escalation with China, as the WSJ is looking at tariffs on China goods to drop to 50 to 65%. Gains were kept in check by talk of the potential for the US to plant even more acres of corn since planting progress is running so far ahead of average. Rain showers are in the forecast for the Corn Belt, but it appears that the rain will only be hit and miss and should not result in any major slowdown in planting. Improving weather conditions in South America added selling as the recent rains resulted in corn in Brazil to improve enough to cause Dr Cordonnier to increase his production estimate 3 MMT to 125 MMT.
Demand for corn remains strong and this week’s ethanol production is confirmation of that. Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.033 million barrels, up 21,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks dropped to a 64-week low at 25.48 million barrels, a decline of 1.333 million from the previous week. Gas demand rocketed to 28 week high and to the top of the 5-year average.
On Thursday corn opened the session with gains and continued to trade in a tight range throughout the overnight session. But once the day session started, corn managed to slowly and methodically gain ground. Early support came from technical buying as corn bounced off support. Light support also spilled over from the higher soybean complex. The morning’s strong export sales estimate did not hurt as last week’s corn export sales pace continued to be above 1 MMT and shows countries are still very interested in buying US corn. Corn’s export sales pace continues to run 26% ahead of last year, which will likely result in USDA having to increase corn’s export sales pace again. Gains were kept in check early from the expectation that producers will likely plant more corn than expected due to the early planting season.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, May corn was at $4.7875 down 3.5 cents. July corn was at $4.855 down 4.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments April 25
Corn Weekly Comments April 25
To start the week corn opened the session higher and extended session gains throughout the night. But corn faded its gains once the day session got under way and by the close most months were sitting close to steady. Early support was due to technical buying make a move to test recent highs. Light support was due to the need to put more premium in corn as demand has continued to advance above expectations. Forecasts calling for cooler wetter conditions for a majority of the Corn Belt for the next 15 days added support. A sharply lower US dollar added support as this will make US corn more attractive in the export market. Gains were trimmed late due to profit taking and economic uncertainty. As of April 17, Brazil was reporting first crop corn harvest at 75% complete vs 70% last week and 75% average. Argentina was reporting corn harvest at 25% complete vs 22% last week and 23% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened steady and pushed to trade with small gains by the close of the night session. But once the day session started, corn turned lower and extended session losses throughout the first half of the day. Early support was due to weather forecasts calling for on and off showers to continue to move through the Corn Belt for the next 14 days. Gains were kept in check from the realization that corn planting is far enough ahead of average that a slight slowdown will not impact progress too much. A slight dry down to the forecasts added pressure once the day session started. Losses were trimmed slightly by comments by the Treasury stating that the tariff tit for tat with China is not sustainable and that a compromise will occur soon.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session higher but faded to trade lower by the end of the night. Early support was due to talk of a de-escalation with China, as the WSJ is looking at tariffs on China goods to drop to 50 to 65%. Gains were kept in check by talk of the potential for the US to plant even more acres of corn since planting progress is running so far ahead of average. Rain showers are in the forecast for the Corn Belt, but it appears that the rain will only be hit and miss and should not result in any major slowdown in planting. Improving weather conditions in South America added selling as the recent rains resulted in corn in Brazil to improve enough to cause Dr Cordonnier to increase his production estimate 3 MMT to 125 MMT.
Demand for corn remains strong and this week’s ethanol production is confirmation of that. Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.033 million barrels, up 21,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks dropped to a 64-week low at 25.48 million barrels, a decline of 1.333 million from the previous week. Gas demand rocketed to 28 week high and to the top of the 5-year average.
On Thursday corn opened the session with gains and continued to trade in a tight range throughout the overnight session. But once the day session started, corn managed to slowly and methodically gain ground. Early support came from technical buying as corn bounced off support. Light support also spilled over from the higher soybean complex. The morning’s strong export sales estimate did not hurt as last week’s corn export sales pace continued to be above 1 MMT and shows countries are still very interested in buying US corn. Corn’s export sales pace continues to run 26% ahead of last year, which will likely result in USDA having to increase corn’s export sales pace again. Gains were kept in check early from the expectation that producers will likely plant more corn than expected due to the early planting season.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, May corn was at $4.7875 down 3.5 cents. July corn was at $4.855 down 4.75 cents.