Corn started the week by opening the session higher and then extended gains throughout the night. Early support came from the Pro Farmer final yield estimate which came in at 182.7 bus vs USDA’s Aug estimate of 188.8 bus. Strong export demand for US corn added support as once again last week’s export inspections estimate was above 1 MMT. Technically Dec 25 corn is flirting with its 50-day moving average ($4.175). Corn has not closed above this level since early July and only has closed above this level 3 times since May. Reports that Canada is going to remove all tariffs on all US imports tied to the USMCA added support. As of August 22, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was estimated at 91% complete vs 84% last week and 89% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure and traded with small gains throughout most of the session. Early selling was tied to Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed steady crop conditions vs the previous week. The biggest surprise in the ratings was OH, which improved 8%. Gains were trimmed during the day session and once trading volume increased. Selling was tied to technical pressure as once corn failed to cross over the 50-day moving average, profit taking took charge. Demand for corn remains strong, which is helping to keep underlying support under the market, but that might take a back seat to profit taking and pressure tied to the need to either cash out of roll Sept contract positions.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to profit taking the rolling out of the front month Sept before it goes into delivery. It is obvious that traders are liquidating their Sept contracts and not rolling to deferred months as open interest has dropped 95,000 contracts in 3 days. The evening up of positions ahead of the long weekend added pressure. Losses were kept in check by strong demand for US corn, which was evident from reports that Taiwan was in and bought 65 TMT of US corn overnight. Ukraine’s UAC Union is estimating the countries corn production at 29 MMT, up 1 MMT from their previous estimate. South Africa is estimating their corn production at 15.8 MMT vs 15.0 MMT previously and vs 12.9 MMT last year.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.07 million barrels, down 2,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 22.59 million barrels, down 139,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand rebounded.
On Thursday corn opened the session steady and continued to trade steady to firm throughout the thinly traded night session. Early support came from technical support as corn held above resistance. Last week’s strong export sales estimate added strength. Once again, old crop corn sales were negative, but new crop sales were at an impressive 82 MB. This pushes 2025 corn exports to 738 MB, the second highest level for last August in 20 years. It looks like corn is marking time waiting for actual harvest results. Most of the trade believes production will fall somewhere between USDA’s Aug estimate and the Pro Farmer number and since both are worked into the market. The market just might flounder until we get deeper into harvest.
Sept corn support is $3.65.
For the week, Sept corn was at $3.98 up 9.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.2025 up 8.75 cents.
For the month, Sept corn was up 4.0 cents. Dec corn was up 6.5 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments August 29
Corn Weekly Comments August 29
Corn started the week by opening the session higher and then extended gains throughout the night. Early support came from the Pro Farmer final yield estimate which came in at 182.7 bus vs USDA’s Aug estimate of 188.8 bus. Strong export demand for US corn added support as once again last week’s export inspections estimate was above 1 MMT. Technically Dec 25 corn is flirting with its 50-day moving average ($4.175). Corn has not closed above this level since early July and only has closed above this level 3 times since May. Reports that Canada is going to remove all tariffs on all US imports tied to the USMCA added support. As of August 22, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was estimated at 91% complete vs 84% last week and 89% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but shook off the early selling pressure and traded with small gains throughout most of the session. Early selling was tied to Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed steady crop conditions vs the previous week. The biggest surprise in the ratings was OH, which improved 8%. Gains were trimmed during the day session and once trading volume increased. Selling was tied to technical pressure as once corn failed to cross over the 50-day moving average, profit taking took charge. Demand for corn remains strong, which is helping to keep underlying support under the market, but that might take a back seat to profit taking and pressure tied to the need to either cash out of roll Sept contract positions.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to profit taking the rolling out of the front month Sept before it goes into delivery. It is obvious that traders are liquidating their Sept contracts and not rolling to deferred months as open interest has dropped 95,000 contracts in 3 days. The evening up of positions ahead of the long weekend added pressure. Losses were kept in check by strong demand for US corn, which was evident from reports that Taiwan was in and bought 65 TMT of US corn overnight. Ukraine’s UAC Union is estimating the countries corn production at 29 MMT, up 1 MMT from their previous estimate. South Africa is estimating their corn production at 15.8 MMT vs 15.0 MMT previously and vs 12.9 MMT last year.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.07 million barrels, down 2,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 22.59 million barrels, down 139,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand rebounded.
On Thursday corn opened the session steady and continued to trade steady to firm throughout the thinly traded night session. Early support came from technical support as corn held above resistance. Last week’s strong export sales estimate added strength. Once again, old crop corn sales were negative, but new crop sales were at an impressive 82 MB. This pushes 2025 corn exports to 738 MB, the second highest level for last August in 20 years. It looks like corn is marking time waiting for actual harvest results. Most of the trade believes production will fall somewhere between USDA’s Aug estimate and the Pro Farmer number and since both are worked into the market. The market just might flounder until we get deeper into harvest.
Sept corn support is $3.65.
For the week, Sept corn was at $3.98 up 9.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.2025 up 8.75 cents.
For the month, Sept corn was up 4.0 cents. Dec corn was up 6.5 cents.