Corn opened Monday’s session steady to firm and traded in that fashion throughout the night and start of the day session. Corn continues to see thin light trading, which was evident by last night’s 2 cent trading range. Early support continues to come from strong demand as last week’s shipments were once again above expectations. Light support was also due to USDA’s 10-year Baseline Projections, which estimates 2026 corn planted acreage at 95 million vs 98.7 million last year. Stocks are estimated at 2.019 BB vs 2.154 BB last year. Support was also due to news that AgRural lowered corn crop production estimate for Brazil to 135.3 MMT vs 141.1 MMT last year. Grains were kept in check by Ukraine’s corn production estimate of 30.5 MMT vs 30.1 MMT previously. As of Dec 5, Brazil estimated their first crop corn planting progress at 97% complete vs 93% last week and 97% average. Traders are not expecting USDA to make much in the way of adjustments to corn’s supply and demand estimate, maybe just a small increase in exports.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session steady but managed to push higher in the overnight session and hold gains throughout most of the night and start of the day session. Early support was due to expectations that today’s report would be friendly corn. Gains were trimmed by news that Trump is looking at hitting Canada with import tariffs on fertilizer and considering putting tariffs on Mexico unless they live up to the Mexico US water treaty. Reports that Argentina lower their export tax on corn added pressure. The new export tax is 8.5% vs 9.5% previously. But all of the bearish news seemed to fade away once USDA released their Dec Crop Production report, which was friendly corn.
For old crop, USDA increased corn imports 2 MB, decreased feed 26 MB and increased exports 28 MB. The net result; no change to ending stocks.
For new crop, USDA increased exports 125 MB, which followed through to decrease ending stocks by the same, putting stocks at 2.029 BB, 100 MB below expectations.
World stocks were estimated at 279.2 MMT, 1.2 MMT below expectation and 2.1 MMT below last month. No changes were made to SA numbers.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day session. Technical selling started corn on the defense as corn once again failed to cross over the 200-day moving average. Selling also spilled over from the lower wheat complex. Light selling was tied to CONAB production estimates. CONAB will release their updated production estimates on Thursday. Early estimates have corn production at 140.96 MMT up 2.1 MMT from the previous estimate. Corn, for the most part, has set itself up in a trading range between $4.40 and $4.50 (excluding one break out to $4.58 and one break down to $4.35). The sharp increase in exports yesterday could not push corn through resistance and traders are wondering what news could at this point.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.105 million barrels, down 21,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 22.52 million barrels, down 1,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand ticked up.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but shook off early selling pressure and turned to post gains by the end of the night. Early support came from a flash sale. USDA reported an export sale of 186 TMT of corn to an unknown destination. Taiwan also bought 65 TMT of US corn overnight. Support also came from USDA’s Nov 13 export sale report, which put corn’s sales above expectations and at the second highest level this marketing year. CONAB updated their Brazil corn production estimate today and it too was friendly. Their latest production estimate came in at 138.9 MMT vs expectations of 140.96 MMT and vs 138.9 MMT previously. Technically corn remains at the upper end of its trading range.
March corn support is $4.35.
For the week, March corn was at $4.4075 down 4.0 cents. May corn was at $4.49 down 3.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments December 12
Corn Weekly Comments December 12
Corn opened Monday’s session steady to firm and traded in that fashion throughout the night and start of the day session. Corn continues to see thin light trading, which was evident by last night’s 2 cent trading range. Early support continues to come from strong demand as last week’s shipments were once again above expectations. Light support was also due to USDA’s 10-year Baseline Projections, which estimates 2026 corn planted acreage at 95 million vs 98.7 million last year. Stocks are estimated at 2.019 BB vs 2.154 BB last year. Support was also due to news that AgRural lowered corn crop production estimate for Brazil to 135.3 MMT vs 141.1 MMT last year. Grains were kept in check by Ukraine’s corn production estimate of 30.5 MMT vs 30.1 MMT previously. As of Dec 5, Brazil estimated their first crop corn planting progress at 97% complete vs 93% last week and 97% average. Traders are not expecting USDA to make much in the way of adjustments to corn’s supply and demand estimate, maybe just a small increase in exports.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session steady but managed to push higher in the overnight session and hold gains throughout most of the night and start of the day session. Early support was due to expectations that today’s report would be friendly corn. Gains were trimmed by news that Trump is looking at hitting Canada with import tariffs on fertilizer and considering putting tariffs on Mexico unless they live up to the Mexico US water treaty. Reports that Argentina lower their export tax on corn added pressure. The new export tax is 8.5% vs 9.5% previously. But all of the bearish news seemed to fade away once USDA released their Dec Crop Production report, which was friendly corn.
For old crop, USDA increased corn imports 2 MB, decreased feed 26 MB and increased exports 28 MB. The net result; no change to ending stocks.
For new crop, USDA increased exports 125 MB, which followed through to decrease ending stocks by the same, putting stocks at 2.029 BB, 100 MB below expectations.
World stocks were estimated at 279.2 MMT, 1.2 MMT below expectation and 2.1 MMT below last month. No changes were made to SA numbers.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day session. Technical selling started corn on the defense as corn once again failed to cross over the 200-day moving average. Selling also spilled over from the lower wheat complex. Light selling was tied to CONAB production estimates. CONAB will release their updated production estimates on Thursday. Early estimates have corn production at 140.96 MMT up 2.1 MMT from the previous estimate. Corn, for the most part, has set itself up in a trading range between $4.40 and $4.50 (excluding one break out to $4.58 and one break down to $4.35). The sharp increase in exports yesterday could not push corn through resistance and traders are wondering what news could at this point.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.105 million barrels, down 21,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 22.52 million barrels, down 1,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand ticked up.
In Thursday’s session corn opened lower but shook off early selling pressure and turned to post gains by the end of the night. Early support came from a flash sale. USDA reported an export sale of 186 TMT of corn to an unknown destination. Taiwan also bought 65 TMT of US corn overnight. Support also came from USDA’s Nov 13 export sale report, which put corn’s sales above expectations and at the second highest level this marketing year. CONAB updated their Brazil corn production estimate today and it too was friendly. Their latest production estimate came in at 138.9 MMT vs expectations of 140.96 MMT and vs 138.9 MMT previously. Technically corn remains at the upper end of its trading range.
March corn support is $4.35.
For the week, March corn was at $4.4075 down 4.0 cents. May corn was at $4.49 down 3.25 cents.