Corn Weekly Comments December 5

Corn Weekly Comments December 5

Corn started the week by opening the session lower and continued to trade in the red throughout the night and day session. Technical selling was the main reason for the pressure as traders thought last week’s gains were overdone due to the thin light trading volume which helped exaggerate session gains. Increased production estimates for Brazil and reports that planting progress is almost completed added pressure. As of November 28, Brazil’s first crop corn planting progress was estimated at 93% complete vs 88% last week and 95% average. Losses were trimmed by another strong export sales and export inspections estimate as both are sitting at record levels for this time of year. In South American news, the 6-to-10-day weather forecast for Brazil is calling for below normal precip.

Corn opened Tuesday’s session steady to unchanged and continued to trade with small changes throughout the night. Spill over support from the higher wheat complex helped to push corn higher. Gains were kept in check early due to spillover selling from the lower soybeans. Corn option volatility is at a 12 month low. Support also came from strong demand for corn as exports remain at a record pace and ethanol demand is catching up. With harvest virtually complete and influence from the Dec basis fixed contracts in the rearview mirror, farmers are going to need an incentive start to move grain.

In Wednesday’s session corn saw small losses overnight and then added to the losses in the day session to close solidly lower. Technical selling pulled corn lower. The losses in the soybean market added pressure. Ukraine has exported 3.7 MMT of 2025/26 corn so far this marketing year. That’s sharply below last year’s same week total of 6.976 MMT. Losses were limited by a friendly ethanol production report. Last week’s ethanol production increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 1.126 million barrels per day. That was a new all-time weekly record. Stocks increased by 543,000 barrels to 22.511 million.

Corn opened Thursday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night session. Early selling pressure spilled over from Wednesday’s poor performance. Corn was able to brush off the early selling and turn higher once the day session kicked into gear. Support was due to two flash export sales, one to Columbia for 100.8 MMT while the other was to Mexico for 392.5 MMT. Another strong export sales report added strength. USDA released the export sales estimate for the week ending Oct 30, and once again it shows corn year to date sales remain 76% above last year. The Trump administration has lowered the fuel economy standard for fleet requirements to 34.5 mpg by 2031 vs the Biden’s administration earlier requirement of 50.4 mpg.

Dec corn support is $4.10.

For the week, March corn was at $4.4475 down 3.0 cents. May corn was at $4.5225 down 4.0 cents.

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