Corn Weekly Comments February 20

Corn Weekly Comments February 20

After the long weekend, corn opened the session lower and like wheat, extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to technical selling as corn was unable to break above resistance levels. Losses were kept in check early from reports that Cordonnier lowered his production estimate for Brazil 1 MMT to 136 MMT. As of February 13, Brail was reporting first crop corn harvest at 23% complete vs 17% last week and 26% average. Second crop corn planting progress was estimated at 21% complete vs 13% last week and 26% average. Last week’s corn export shipments pace was friendly as it continues to show strong demand for US corn. Expectations the Ag Outlook Forum will come with over 95 million for US planted corn acreage for 2026 limited session gains.

Corn opened Wednesday’s session steady but managed to push higher and trade with small gains throughout the rest of the night and day session. Technical buying helped push corn early in the session as traders try to make another attempt at testing resistance. Light support came from early estimates ahead of the Ag Outlook Forum. CoBank is estimating corn acreage at 94 million vs 98.8 million last year. Light support was also due to expectations that tomorrow’s ethanol production report will be friendly. EU year to date imports of corn is at 10.88 MMT vs 13.19 MMT last year.

On Thursday corn opened lower but like Wednesday, brushed off the early selling and pushed to post small gains throughout the overnight session. Gains were trimmed once the day session started with selling tied to profit taking and technical selling. A stronger crude oil market and expectations that EPA will be submitting their biofuel obligations to the White House soon for considerations helped give corn support early. Weather concerns in Brazil added support as rain continues to slow down harvest of the first corn crop and planting of the second corn crop. But technical selling and profit taking pulled corn lower.

The Ag Outlook Forum 2026 supply and demand estimates were friendly corn, but corn seemed to ignore the numbers. Acreage was estimated at 94 million vs 98.8 million last year. Yield was estimated at 183 bus vs 186.5 bus last year. Production was estimated at 15.755 BB vs 17.02 BB last year. Feed demand was estimated at 6.0 BB vs 6.2 BB last year. Ethanol was projected to remain unchanged at 5.6 BB. Exports are estimated at 3.1 BB vs 3.3 BB last year. Stocks were estimated at 1.84 BB vs 2.13 BB last year.

Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.118 million barrels, up 8,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.59 million barrels, up 341,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand surged higher.

March corn support is $4.10.

For the week, March corn was at $4.275 up 1.0 cent. May corn was at $4.3975 down 2.25 cents.

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