To start the week corn opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from weather forecast calling for hot dry conditions to dominate the major growing regions of the US. The 1-to-5-day forecast is calling for rain for the Northern Plains and temps to be above too much above for the US. The 6-to-10-day forecast is calling for hot dry conditions for the entire US. The 11 to 15 day forecast has rain moving to the northern regions of the Corn Belt, but temps are expected to remain above normal. Corn is expected to be deep into pollination when the heat system takes hold.
Expectations that Friday’s WASDE Report will be friendly added support. Technically Monday’s rally was a blessing to see after seeing corn retreat lower over the last 6 to 8 weeks. Look for Dec to make a test of the $4.65 level to start to price grain again. As of July 2, Argentina was reporting harvest progress at 65% complete vs 60% last week, and 70% average. As of July 3, Brazil was estimating second crop corn harvest progress at 16% complete vs 11% last week and vs 20% average.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and trade with minor changes from the previous day. Early selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring. Corn managed to shake off early selling pressure and push into the black once the day session started, and after the updated weather forecast was released. The updated weather forecast increased the heat and decreased the rain for the US in the 6-to-15-day forecast, which also lines up with the time frame that a majority of the US corn will be pollinating. Rumors of China buying soybeans the potential for both the US and China to lift some tariffs against each other added support. Technically look for Dec to make a test of the $4.65 level to start to price grain again. This would be a 50% retracement from the recent high to recent low.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night. A brief moment during the night session saw corn push higher, trading up to the 50% retracement level, which uncovered a heavy round of hedge selling, which in turn pushed corn lower. Overnight rain and long-term forecasts calling for rain added to the pressure. The 1-to-5-day forecast, but more so the 6-to-10-day forecast, is calling for extremely high temps and little precip for the 48 continental states, at the same time that a majority of the US corn crop enters pollination.
Last week’s ethanol production report put last week’s production at 1.093 million barrels, down 24,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.93 million barrels, down 762,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined slightly.
Corn opened Thursday’s session lower and continued to trade on the defense. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts calling for cooler than expected temps in the 8-to-15-day forecast. A lower crude oil marker added pressure. Losses were kept in check during the day session due to spill over support from the higher wheat complex as well as from expectations that tomorrow’s USDA report will be friendly corn.
Sept corn support is $4.05. Dec corn support is at $4.15.
For the week, Sept corn was at $4.395 up 16.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.61 up 19.5 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments July 10
Corn Weekly Comments July 10
To start the week corn opened higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from weather forecast calling for hot dry conditions to dominate the major growing regions of the US. The 1-to-5-day forecast is calling for rain for the Northern Plains and temps to be above too much above for the US. The 6-to-10-day forecast is calling for hot dry conditions for the entire US. The 11 to 15 day forecast has rain moving to the northern regions of the Corn Belt, but temps are expected to remain above normal. Corn is expected to be deep into pollination when the heat system takes hold.
Expectations that Friday’s WASDE Report will be friendly added support. Technically Monday’s rally was a blessing to see after seeing corn retreat lower over the last 6 to 8 weeks. Look for Dec to make a test of the $4.65 level to start to price grain again. As of July 2, Argentina was reporting harvest progress at 65% complete vs 60% last week, and 70% average. As of July 3, Brazil was estimating second crop corn harvest progress at 16% complete vs 11% last week and vs 20% average.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and trade with minor changes from the previous day. Early selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring. Corn managed to shake off early selling pressure and push into the black once the day session started, and after the updated weather forecast was released. The updated weather forecast increased the heat and decreased the rain for the US in the 6-to-15-day forecast, which also lines up with the time frame that a majority of the US corn will be pollinating. Rumors of China buying soybeans the potential for both the US and China to lift some tariffs against each other added support. Technically look for Dec to make a test of the $4.65 level to start to price grain again. This would be a 50% retracement from the recent high to recent low.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night. A brief moment during the night session saw corn push higher, trading up to the 50% retracement level, which uncovered a heavy round of hedge selling, which in turn pushed corn lower. Overnight rain and long-term forecasts calling for rain added to the pressure. The 1-to-5-day forecast, but more so the 6-to-10-day forecast, is calling for extremely high temps and little precip for the 48 continental states, at the same time that a majority of the US corn crop enters pollination.
Last week’s ethanol production report put last week’s production at 1.093 million barrels, down 24,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 23.93 million barrels, down 762,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined slightly.
Corn opened Thursday’s session lower and continued to trade on the defense. Early selling was tied to weather forecasts calling for cooler than expected temps in the 8-to-15-day forecast. A lower crude oil marker added pressure. Losses were kept in check during the day session due to spill over support from the higher wheat complex as well as from expectations that tomorrow’s USDA report will be friendly corn.
Sept corn support is $4.05. Dec corn support is at $4.15.
For the week, Sept corn was at $4.395 up 16.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.61 up 19.5 cents.