Corn opened Monday’s session lower and expanded losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show another week of improvements for the corn crop. Rain has fallen over much of the major growing regions of the Corn Belt over the past week and heat is in the forecast for later this week and into next week which is needed to start to get crop growth. Traders are still hung up over the Brazilian corn crop and the expectation that once harvest gets moving, Brazil will take over the export market. As of June 13, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was estimated at 2% complete vs 1% last week and vs 4% average.
With the increase in biofuel mandate and with the appearance that the corn crop is mostly good, but not great, traders are reluctant to push corn higher. USDA is slow walking the increase in corn exports and will likely just keep increasing the pace every month as long as the business doesn’t switch to Brazil. The EPA decision to increase biofuels mandate higher has no impact on ethanol as that level remains steady at 15 billion gallons.
On Tuesday corn opened the session steady and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the overnight session. July corn continued to see selling pressure once the day session started while the new crop contracts pushed higher. It seems odd that the funds want to continue to push old crop corn lower especially with how strong demand is and the likelihood that USDA will have to continue to increase old crop corn use moving forward. But it doesn’t matter what we think, it’s how the market reacts and right now all the funds can think about Brazil has a large second corn crop and at some point, US corn export demand will switch to Brazil. New crop corn also started on the defense but has since firmed with support coming spilling over from the higher wheat and soybean complex. Rain makes grain, and the Corn Belt is expected to see warm wet conditions for the next 5 days. This is limiting the gains in corn.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session steady and continued to trade with small to moderate changes throughout the night. Favorable weather conditions and export concerns (Brazil) continued to keep a lid on corn, especially the July contract. Forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions (heat dome) to start tomorrow and last through next week helped give corn traders a reason to buy. Light support also spilled over from another strong performance in wheat.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.109 million gallons, down 11,000 barrels from the previous week but still above the pace needed to make USDA’s projection. Stocks were estimated at 24.12 million, up 386,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand increased to now be at the top of the five-year average.
Target $5.15 to advance sales
For the week, July corn was at $4.2875 down 15.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.4125 down 1.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments June 20
Corn Weekly Comments June 20
Corn opened Monday’s session lower and expanded losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress will show another week of improvements for the corn crop. Rain has fallen over much of the major growing regions of the Corn Belt over the past week and heat is in the forecast for later this week and into next week which is needed to start to get crop growth. Traders are still hung up over the Brazilian corn crop and the expectation that once harvest gets moving, Brazil will take over the export market. As of June 13, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was estimated at 2% complete vs 1% last week and vs 4% average.
With the increase in biofuel mandate and with the appearance that the corn crop is mostly good, but not great, traders are reluctant to push corn higher. USDA is slow walking the increase in corn exports and will likely just keep increasing the pace every month as long as the business doesn’t switch to Brazil. The EPA decision to increase biofuels mandate higher has no impact on ethanol as that level remains steady at 15 billion gallons.
On Tuesday corn opened the session steady and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the overnight session. July corn continued to see selling pressure once the day session started while the new crop contracts pushed higher. It seems odd that the funds want to continue to push old crop corn lower especially with how strong demand is and the likelihood that USDA will have to continue to increase old crop corn use moving forward. But it doesn’t matter what we think, it’s how the market reacts and right now all the funds can think about Brazil has a large second corn crop and at some point, US corn export demand will switch to Brazil. New crop corn also started on the defense but has since firmed with support coming spilling over from the higher wheat and soybean complex. Rain makes grain, and the Corn Belt is expected to see warm wet conditions for the next 5 days. This is limiting the gains in corn.
Corn opened Wednesday’s session steady and continued to trade with small to moderate changes throughout the night. Favorable weather conditions and export concerns (Brazil) continued to keep a lid on corn, especially the July contract. Forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions (heat dome) to start tomorrow and last through next week helped give corn traders a reason to buy. Light support also spilled over from another strong performance in wheat.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.109 million gallons, down 11,000 barrels from the previous week but still above the pace needed to make USDA’s projection. Stocks were estimated at 24.12 million, up 386,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand increased to now be at the top of the five-year average.
Target $5.15 to advance sales
For the week, July corn was at $4.2875 down 15.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.4125 down 1.75 cents.