Corn started the week by opening the session steady but quickly turned lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to pressure from a lower crude oil market and uncertainty surrounding the status of the peace treaty with Iran. Increasing tensions with China added pressure. Non-threatening weather and expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show improving conditions added pressure. As of June 19, Brazil was estimating the second crop corn harvest at 6% complete vs 3% last week and vs 9% average. Safras and Mercado lower their Brazil corn crop production estimate to 139.94 MMT vs 140.11 MMT previously. Monday’s COT report was not flattering corn as it shows the funds are now net short corn and that they added to that position last week.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session steady and managed to extend session gains throughout the night and at the start of the day session. Early support was due to news that Mexico bought 100 TMT of US corn overnight with 30 TMT being old crop and with 70 TMT being new crop. Corn was stuck in a tug of war between the selloff in wheat and light strength in soybeans. The pressure from wheat won. Corn is trying to find a bottom as the funds have been aggressive sellers. The latest COT report shows the funds are now holding a net short position in corn. To add to that, corn is sitting at two-year lows with no premium for any adversity. Old crop supplies are plentiful and with the non-threatening weather seen so far, this growing season, traders appear to be content with holding corn at the low end of their trading range.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened with gains but traded close to steady throughout the night session. Early support was due to technical buying as like wheat, corn is oversold and in need of a correction. The lack of news added pressure to corn as traders seem reluctant to push corn higher ahead of next week’s USDA reports. Weather continues to be close to ideal, or at least close enough to have traders expecting the crop to make trend line yields. Dr Cordonnier left his US corn yield estimate unchanged this week at 182.0 bus. A stronger US dollar and lower crude oil added pressure late in the session.
Last week’s ethanol production was close to expectations, coming in at 1.09 million barrels, down 12,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.59 million, up 111,000 barrels from the previous week.
On Thursday corn opened lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from another lower session in the crude oil market. But crude reversed direction on the rumor Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked a vessel moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Light support also came from last week’s strong export sales pace for corn, which was enough to push corn exports over USDA’s projection. With 10 weeks left in corn’s export marketing year, USDA might be forced to increase corn’s export pace by another 250 to 500 MB. Technical buying added support as traders try to correct an extremely oversold market condition.
Estimates for next week’s Quarterly Grain Stock report has corn stocks at 5.408 BB vs m4.643 BB last year. Estimates for the Acreage report have corn acres at 94.992 million acres vs 95.338 million in March and vs 98.788 million last year.
July corn support is $4.15. Dec corn support is at $4.35.
For the week, July corn was at $4.1275 down 4.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.415 down 2.5 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments June 26
Corn Weekly Comments June 26
Corn started the week by opening the session steady but quickly turned lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early selling was tied to pressure from a lower crude oil market and uncertainty surrounding the status of the peace treaty with Iran. Increasing tensions with China added pressure. Non-threatening weather and expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show improving conditions added pressure. As of June 19, Brazil was estimating the second crop corn harvest at 6% complete vs 3% last week and vs 9% average. Safras and Mercado lower their Brazil corn crop production estimate to 139.94 MMT vs 140.11 MMT previously. Monday’s COT report was not flattering corn as it shows the funds are now net short corn and that they added to that position last week.
Corn opened Tuesday’s session steady and managed to extend session gains throughout the night and at the start of the day session. Early support was due to news that Mexico bought 100 TMT of US corn overnight with 30 TMT being old crop and with 70 TMT being new crop. Corn was stuck in a tug of war between the selloff in wheat and light strength in soybeans. The pressure from wheat won. Corn is trying to find a bottom as the funds have been aggressive sellers. The latest COT report shows the funds are now holding a net short position in corn. To add to that, corn is sitting at two-year lows with no premium for any adversity. Old crop supplies are plentiful and with the non-threatening weather seen so far, this growing season, traders appear to be content with holding corn at the low end of their trading range.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened with gains but traded close to steady throughout the night session. Early support was due to technical buying as like wheat, corn is oversold and in need of a correction. The lack of news added pressure to corn as traders seem reluctant to push corn higher ahead of next week’s USDA reports. Weather continues to be close to ideal, or at least close enough to have traders expecting the crop to make trend line yields. Dr Cordonnier left his US corn yield estimate unchanged this week at 182.0 bus. A stronger US dollar and lower crude oil added pressure late in the session.
Last week’s ethanol production was close to expectations, coming in at 1.09 million barrels, down 12,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.59 million, up 111,000 barrels from the previous week.
On Thursday corn opened lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from another lower session in the crude oil market. But crude reversed direction on the rumor Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attacked a vessel moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Light support also came from last week’s strong export sales pace for corn, which was enough to push corn exports over USDA’s projection. With 10 weeks left in corn’s export marketing year, USDA might be forced to increase corn’s export pace by another 250 to 500 MB. Technical buying added support as traders try to correct an extremely oversold market condition.
Estimates for next week’s Quarterly Grain Stock report has corn stocks at 5.408 BB vs m4.643 BB last year. Estimates for the Acreage report have corn acres at 94.992 million acres vs 95.338 million in March and vs 98.788 million last year.
July corn support is $4.15. Dec corn support is at $4.35.
For the week, July corn was at $4.1275 down 4.75 cents. Dec corn was at $4.415 down 2.5 cents.