To start the week corn opened the session higher but faded lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from reports of adverse weather in the Northern Plains and from the expectation that the Quarterly Grain Stock estimate will show tight old crop supplies. But corn faded the gains quickly with selling tied to improving weather conditions in the Corn Belt as hot and dry conditions are expected to give way to cooler wetter conditions starting tomorrow. Selling was also tied to selling from expectation that a lot of basis fixed and futures fixed corn will be delivered against the July contract. Corn traded to new contract lows today. As of June 20, Brazil was estimating harvest for the second corn crop at 7% complete vs 2% last week and 9% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened higher in the overnight session but slipped to trade mainly steady throughout the night session. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed a lower crop rating for corn than expected. Light support was also due to news that Mexico was in and bought 630 TMT of US corn overnight, 554.4 TMT for the 2025 crop year while 75.6 MMT was for the 2026 crop year. Gains were trimmed by improving weather forecasts for the Corn Belt as rain in the forecast for later in the week. The expectations that there are a lot of July basis and futures fixed contracts that need to be settled added pressure to corn late in the session. Expectations that USDA’s report on Monday could hold a surprise for corn added pressure. Corn closed at another new low today.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout the overnight session. Early selling was tied weather forecasts that continue to call for non-threatening weather for much of the Corn Belt. Light selling pressure was also due to Agroconsult’s 10 MMT increase in Brazil’s corn production estimate. Expectations that Monday’s Acreage Report will show higher planted acreage than the March estimate added pressure. Technical selling was the icing on the cake, pushing most months to new contract lows by the close.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was neutral corn as it showed last week’s production at 1.08 million barrels, down 28,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.4 million barrels, 284,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand surged and is above the 5-year average and the highest it has been since Oct 2024.
Corn opened Thursday’s session steady but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher throughout the night. Early support came from technical buying as traders tried to correct an oversold market condition. Another strong weekly export sales report added to the early support. At this point corn exports are 1 MB above USDA’s projection with 10 weeks left in the marketing year. That means USDA has to increase corn’s export pace once again. The average export sales pace over the past few months has been about 30 MB, which would mean USDA should increase exports by 300 MB and that will also reduce both old crop and new crop ending stocks by the same. That will just make getting a better than average crop in 2025 that much more important. Gains were lost once the day session got under way due to fund selling.
Early position squaring ahead of the Monday’s USDA reports added direction. The average estimate for the Stocks estimate is 4.64 BB vs 4.997 BB last year. Average trade estimates for corn acres are at 95.35 million vs 95.33 million in March and vs 90.59 million last year.
For the week, July corn was at $4.175 down 11.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.27 down 13.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments June 27
Corn Weekly Comments June 27
To start the week corn opened the session higher but faded lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the day session. Early support came from reports of adverse weather in the Northern Plains and from the expectation that the Quarterly Grain Stock estimate will show tight old crop supplies. But corn faded the gains quickly with selling tied to improving weather conditions in the Corn Belt as hot and dry conditions are expected to give way to cooler wetter conditions starting tomorrow. Selling was also tied to selling from expectation that a lot of basis fixed and futures fixed corn will be delivered against the July contract. Corn traded to new contract lows today. As of June 20, Brazil was estimating harvest for the second corn crop at 7% complete vs 2% last week and 9% average.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened higher in the overnight session but slipped to trade mainly steady throughout the night session. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed a lower crop rating for corn than expected. Light support was also due to news that Mexico was in and bought 630 TMT of US corn overnight, 554.4 TMT for the 2025 crop year while 75.6 MMT was for the 2026 crop year. Gains were trimmed by improving weather forecasts for the Corn Belt as rain in the forecast for later in the week. The expectations that there are a lot of July basis and futures fixed contracts that need to be settled added pressure to corn late in the session. Expectations that USDA’s report on Monday could hold a surprise for corn added pressure. Corn closed at another new low today.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session lower and extended losses throughout the overnight session. Early selling was tied weather forecasts that continue to call for non-threatening weather for much of the Corn Belt. Light selling pressure was also due to Agroconsult’s 10 MMT increase in Brazil’s corn production estimate. Expectations that Monday’s Acreage Report will show higher planted acreage than the March estimate added pressure. Technical selling was the icing on the cake, pushing most months to new contract lows by the close.
Last week’s ethanol production estimate was neutral corn as it showed last week’s production at 1.08 million barrels, down 28,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.4 million barrels, 284,000 barrels above the previous week. Gas demand surged and is above the 5-year average and the highest it has been since Oct 2024.
Corn opened Thursday’s session steady but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher throughout the night. Early support came from technical buying as traders tried to correct an oversold market condition. Another strong weekly export sales report added to the early support. At this point corn exports are 1 MB above USDA’s projection with 10 weeks left in the marketing year. That means USDA has to increase corn’s export pace once again. The average export sales pace over the past few months has been about 30 MB, which would mean USDA should increase exports by 300 MB and that will also reduce both old crop and new crop ending stocks by the same. That will just make getting a better than average crop in 2025 that much more important. Gains were lost once the day session got under way due to fund selling.
Early position squaring ahead of the Monday’s USDA reports added direction. The average estimate for the Stocks estimate is 4.64 BB vs 4.997 BB last year. Average trade estimates for corn acres are at 95.35 million vs 95.33 million in March and vs 90.59 million last year.
For the week, July corn was at $4.175 down 11.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.27 down 13.25 cents.