To start the week corn opened on the positive side but quickly turned lower. The market was able to get back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from improving demand as USDA announced a sale of 126,000 MT of corn to Japan. In addition, last week’s export shipments were much higher than expected and a marketing year high. Marketing year to date shipments total 1.145 BB vs. just 861 MB at the same time last year. Gains were limited by the advancing second crop corn planting in Brazil with planting at 84% complete vs. 71% average. The first crop corn is 45% harvested vs. 44% average. Early estimates for USDA’s March Crop Production report have corn stocks at 1.516 BB vs 1.54 BB last month. World corn stocks are estimated at 289.3 MMT vs 290.3 MMT last month.
In Tuesday’s session corn traded in a narrow range around unchanged for the first part of the overnight session then started climbing higher. The market saw the session highs early in the day session but then faded and closed with small losses. USDA’s report was largely a non-event for corn. No changes were made to the US balance sheet, leaving ending stocks at 1.540 BB (but 33 MB more than expected). The national average price was left unchanged at $4.35.
USDA left South American production unchanged at 126.0 MMT for Brazil (0.3 MMT lower than expected) and Argentina at 50.0 MMT (1.3 MMT higher than expected). World ending stocks were at 288.9 MMT, 1.4 MMT lower than last month and 1.0 MMT lower than expected. USDA also went back to the 2023/24 crop year and increased Argentina’s corn production by 1.0 MMT to 51.0 MMT and dropped Brazil’s corn production by 3.0 MMT to 119.0 MMT.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session with small gains before turning lower. The market then fell lower until late in the day session when corn was able to trim the losses but still closed solidly lower. Tariff concerns pulled the market lower as President Trump announced more tariffs. Canadian officials said that if Trump moves forward with the 25% tariffs on Canadian products on April 2, Canada may reply by putting tariffs on US ethanol. Canada is the largest buyer of US ethanol with 35% of the US export market, which is roughly equivalent to 235 MB of corn used. Last week’s ethanol production dropped 31,000 barrels per day to 1.062 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks increased 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million.
In Thursday’s session corn saw small losses for the first part of the overnight session but then started climbing higher. The day session was choppy, but corn was still able to close with small gains. Support came from reports that Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop by 1.5 MMT to 44.5 MMT. Meanwhile CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s total corn crop by 0.8 MMT to 122.8 MMT (USDA is at 126.0 MMT) but lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop by 0.6 MMT to 95.5 MMT. Technical buying added to the gains. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, May corn was at $4.585 down 10.75 cents. July corn was at $4.675 down 8.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments March 14
Corn Weekly Comments March 14
To start the week corn opened on the positive side but quickly turned lower. The market was able to get back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from improving demand as USDA announced a sale of 126,000 MT of corn to Japan. In addition, last week’s export shipments were much higher than expected and a marketing year high. Marketing year to date shipments total 1.145 BB vs. just 861 MB at the same time last year. Gains were limited by the advancing second crop corn planting in Brazil with planting at 84% complete vs. 71% average. The first crop corn is 45% harvested vs. 44% average. Early estimates for USDA’s March Crop Production report have corn stocks at 1.516 BB vs 1.54 BB last month. World corn stocks are estimated at 289.3 MMT vs 290.3 MMT last month.
In Tuesday’s session corn traded in a narrow range around unchanged for the first part of the overnight session then started climbing higher. The market saw the session highs early in the day session but then faded and closed with small losses. USDA’s report was largely a non-event for corn. No changes were made to the US balance sheet, leaving ending stocks at 1.540 BB (but 33 MB more than expected). The national average price was left unchanged at $4.35.
USDA left South American production unchanged at 126.0 MMT for Brazil (0.3 MMT lower than expected) and Argentina at 50.0 MMT (1.3 MMT higher than expected). World ending stocks were at 288.9 MMT, 1.4 MMT lower than last month and 1.0 MMT lower than expected. USDA also went back to the 2023/24 crop year and increased Argentina’s corn production by 1.0 MMT to 51.0 MMT and dropped Brazil’s corn production by 3.0 MMT to 119.0 MMT.
On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session with small gains before turning lower. The market then fell lower until late in the day session when corn was able to trim the losses but still closed solidly lower. Tariff concerns pulled the market lower as President Trump announced more tariffs. Canadian officials said that if Trump moves forward with the 25% tariffs on Canadian products on April 2, Canada may reply by putting tariffs on US ethanol. Canada is the largest buyer of US ethanol with 35% of the US export market, which is roughly equivalent to 235 MB of corn used. Last week’s ethanol production dropped 31,000 barrels per day to 1.062 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks increased 87,000 barrels to 27.376 million.
In Thursday’s session corn saw small losses for the first part of the overnight session but then started climbing higher. The day session was choppy, but corn was still able to close with small gains. Support came from reports that Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop by 1.5 MMT to 44.5 MMT. Meanwhile CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s total corn crop by 0.8 MMT to 122.8 MMT (USDA is at 126.0 MMT) but lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop by 0.6 MMT to 95.5 MMT. Technical buying added to the gains. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations.
Target $5.15 to advance sales.
For the week, May corn was at $4.585 down 10.75 cents. July corn was at $4.675 down 8.25 cents.