Corn opened the session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher for the rest of the night and into the day. Early selling was tied to expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress will show good planting progress. But news of two separate export sales helped give corn support. Mexico was in and bought 380 TMT of US corn (split with 220 TMT old crop and 160 TMT new crop). South Korea was also in and bought 128 TMT of US corn. Safras and Mercado trimmed their production estimate for Brazil to 140.1 MMT vs 141.7 MMT previously. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report added support.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but found solid footing during the night session and bounced to trade with small changes into the early morning. Early pressure was due to a better-than-expected planting progress estimate. Corn was able to brush off the early selling pressure due to support spilling over from the higher wheat complex. Selling took charge of corn again once the report was released as the numbers for corn were at best neutral.
For old crop USDA trimmed food demand 15 MB which followed all the way to end up increasing ending stocks by the same. This old crop stocks at 2.142 BB, 3 MB below expectations.
For new crop, planted acreage was estimated at 95.3 million while harvested acreage was put at 87.4 million. Yield was also left unchanged at 183 bus. This put production at 15.995 BB, 61 MB above expectations, 1.27 BB above the Ag Outlook Forum estimate, but 1.026 BB below last year.
Demand was put at 16.205 BB, which results in an ending stock estimate of 1.957 BB, 34 MB above expectations, 120 MB above the Ag Outlook Forum, and 185 MB below last year. The national average price was estimated at $4.40, 25 cents above last year.
Old crop world ending stocks were estimated at 297.0 MMT, 300 TMT above expectations, 2.2 MMT above last month, and 10.5 MMT above last year. Production adjustments were seen in Argentina (+7 MMT), Brazil (+3.0 MMT), and Ukraine (+200 TMT).
New crop world ending stocks were estimated at 277.5 MMT, 13.0 MMT below expectations and 19.5 MMT below last year. Production changes were estimated for Argentina (-4 MMT), Brazil (+4 MMT), Ukraine (-900 TMT), China (+5.8 MMT), and Mexico (-1.1 MMT). China’s stocks are expected to decline 12.1 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower but shook off early selling to turn higher. Early selling was tied to profit taking and technical selling from traders who looked to take profits after pushing corn higher in the past few sessions. Losses were kept in check from Tuesday’s Crop Production report as it showed what will likely be the largest production estimate for corn for 2026. Although May’s report continued to show stocks at comfortable levels, it shows that any hick-up in production could result in much tighter stocks. Dr Cordonnier left his corn production estimates for Brazil (134 MMT) and Argentina (62 MMT) unchanged. Ukraine officials estimated corn production at 32.6 MMT vs 31.3 MMT last year.
Last week’s ethanol production report was friendly as it showed a slight increase in grind and a sharp drop in stocks. Production was estimated at 1.082 million barrels, up 6,500 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.87 million, down 1.15 million barrels (a 17-week low). Gas demand slipped slightly.
Corn opened lower on Thursday and extended losses throughout the night and day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and the evening up of positions ahead of news from China. The need to correct an overbought conditions added pressure as new crop Dec corn put in another new high, trading to levels not seen since Dec 2023. Weather forecasts calling for good rain for the Corn Belt over the next 7 days added pressure. Selling picked up the pace once last week’s export sales estimate was released. The export sales pace was disappointing, coming in at an 11-week low. CONAB increased their corn production estimate for Brazil to 140.2 MMT vs 139.6 MMT previously. Rosario Grain is estimating Argentina corn production at 68 MMT vs 67.0 MMT previously. Although Thursday’s close was not encouraging, no damage was done to the charts.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.5575 down 15.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.81 down 8.0 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 15
Corn Weekly Comments May 15
Corn opened the session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher for the rest of the night and into the day. Early selling was tied to expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress will show good planting progress. But news of two separate export sales helped give corn support. Mexico was in and bought 380 TMT of US corn (split with 220 TMT old crop and 160 TMT new crop). South Korea was also in and bought 128 TMT of US corn. Safras and Mercado trimmed their production estimate for Brazil to 140.1 MMT vs 141.7 MMT previously. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report added support.
In Tuesday’s session corn opened lower but found solid footing during the night session and bounced to trade with small changes into the early morning. Early pressure was due to a better-than-expected planting progress estimate. Corn was able to brush off the early selling pressure due to support spilling over from the higher wheat complex. Selling took charge of corn again once the report was released as the numbers for corn were at best neutral.
For old crop USDA trimmed food demand 15 MB which followed all the way to end up increasing ending stocks by the same. This old crop stocks at 2.142 BB, 3 MB below expectations.
For new crop, planted acreage was estimated at 95.3 million while harvested acreage was put at 87.4 million. Yield was also left unchanged at 183 bus. This put production at 15.995 BB, 61 MB above expectations, 1.27 BB above the Ag Outlook Forum estimate, but 1.026 BB below last year.
Demand was put at 16.205 BB, which results in an ending stock estimate of 1.957 BB, 34 MB above expectations, 120 MB above the Ag Outlook Forum, and 185 MB below last year. The national average price was estimated at $4.40, 25 cents above last year.
Old crop world ending stocks were estimated at 297.0 MMT, 300 TMT above expectations, 2.2 MMT above last month, and 10.5 MMT above last year. Production adjustments were seen in Argentina (+7 MMT), Brazil (+3.0 MMT), and Ukraine (+200 TMT).
New crop world ending stocks were estimated at 277.5 MMT, 13.0 MMT below expectations and 19.5 MMT below last year. Production changes were estimated for Argentina (-4 MMT), Brazil (+4 MMT), Ukraine (-900 TMT), China (+5.8 MMT), and Mexico (-1.1 MMT). China’s stocks are expected to decline 12.1 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower but shook off early selling to turn higher. Early selling was tied to profit taking and technical selling from traders who looked to take profits after pushing corn higher in the past few sessions. Losses were kept in check from Tuesday’s Crop Production report as it showed what will likely be the largest production estimate for corn for 2026. Although May’s report continued to show stocks at comfortable levels, it shows that any hick-up in production could result in much tighter stocks. Dr Cordonnier left his corn production estimates for Brazil (134 MMT) and Argentina (62 MMT) unchanged. Ukraine officials estimated corn production at 32.6 MMT vs 31.3 MMT last year.
Last week’s ethanol production report was friendly as it showed a slight increase in grind and a sharp drop in stocks. Production was estimated at 1.082 million barrels, up 6,500 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 24.87 million, down 1.15 million barrels (a 17-week low). Gas demand slipped slightly.
Corn opened lower on Thursday and extended losses throughout the night and day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and the evening up of positions ahead of news from China. The need to correct an overbought conditions added pressure as new crop Dec corn put in another new high, trading to levels not seen since Dec 2023. Weather forecasts calling for good rain for the Corn Belt over the next 7 days added pressure. Selling picked up the pace once last week’s export sales estimate was released. The export sales pace was disappointing, coming in at an 11-week low. CONAB increased their corn production estimate for Brazil to 140.2 MMT vs 139.6 MMT previously. Rosario Grain is estimating Argentina corn production at 68 MMT vs 67.0 MMT previously. Although Thursday’s close was not encouraging, no damage was done to the charts.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.5575 down 15.5 cents. Dec corn was at $4.81 down 8.0 cents.