Corn started the week lower. Early selling was tied to harvest pressure as weekend weather was ideal and should show good harvest progress in this afternoon’s crop progress report. Light selling was tied to the evening of positions ahead of month end and end of quarter. Reports that China starts Golden Week Oct 1 through Oct 8 added pressure. Losses were kept in check by two flash export sales, 135,660 MT sold to Mexico and 110,668 MT sold to an unknown destination. As of Sept 26, Brazil was reporting their first crop corn planting progress at 36% complete vs 29% last week and 33% average. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
Tuesday’s session opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and hedge selling pressure. Position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports, end of month, and end of quarter were also evident. Selling pressure advanced once the USDA reports were released as the Stocks estimate and 2024 production revision was negative corn.
The Quarterly Grain stocks estimate for corn came in at 1.532 BB, 195 MB above expectations, 207 MB above last month but 231 MB below last year. According to the Stocks estimate, 888 MB is being held off farm while 643 MB is on farm. IA is by far the state holding the most corn in storage at 336 MB followed by MN at 176 MB.
The 2024 revised crop production estimate for corn came in at 14.892 BB, 7 MB above expectations and 25 MB above last month. The net result that USDA will have to address in the Oct Crop Production report will be a 25 MB increase in production and a 207 MB increase in stocks. Technically there was no damage done to corn.
Uncertainty kept the corn market quiet Wednesday as traders look for direction. Corn opened the session with small gains but slipped to trade in the red for most of the night. Early selling was tied to Tuesday’s reports as both the Stocks estimate and revised 2024 production estimates were negative corn. Light selling was also tied to the government shutdown as this will halt the release of reports. Light selling as also tied to BAGE’s higher production estimate for Argentina corn. They are now estimating the crop at 58 MMT vs 49 MMT last year. Late in the session, corn managed to stage a recovery. Support spilled over from the rallying soybean complex. Technically corn did bounce off major support. Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 995,000 barrels, down 29,000 barrels from the previous week and a 20-week low. Stocks were estimated at 22.76 million barrels; a decline of 704,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined.
To close out the week ending Thursday. corn opened higher and held those gains for most of the session. Gains were trimmed early in the session due to the lack of news due to the government shutdown. The shutdown has resulted in the export sales report to be cancelled and at this point it appears that the Oct Crop Production report will be postponed. But corn found support, which helped corn bounce off $4.10 support. Demand remains strong and so far, yield reports have been disappointing, which added to late session support. Talk that the administration is looking at making a substantial aid announcement for farmers on Tuesday added support. StoneX’s corn yield is now estimated at 185.9 bus vs 186.9 bus previously.
Dec corn support is $3.85.
As of Sept 28, 95% of the nation’s corn crop was dented vs 91% last week and 96% average. Mature was estimated at 71% vs 56% last week and vs 74% average. Harvest was estimated at 18% complete vs 11% last week and vs 19% average. Corn’s crop condition rating was unchanged at 66% g/e, 24% fair, and 10% v/vp.
Last week’s corn export shipments pace was estimated at 60.1 MB. After 4 weeks, corn shipments were at 7% of USDA’s expectations vs. 5% last year. With 48 weeks left in corn’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 57.8 MB to make USDA’s projection of 2.975 BB.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.19 down 3.0 cents. Mar corn was at $4.3575 down 3.0 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments Oct 3
Corn Weekly Comments Oct 3
Corn started the week lower. Early selling was tied to harvest pressure as weekend weather was ideal and should show good harvest progress in this afternoon’s crop progress report. Light selling was tied to the evening of positions ahead of month end and end of quarter. Reports that China starts Golden Week Oct 1 through Oct 8 added pressure. Losses were kept in check by two flash export sales, 135,660 MT sold to Mexico and 110,668 MT sold to an unknown destination. As of Sept 26, Brazil was reporting their first crop corn planting progress at 36% complete vs 29% last week and 33% average. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
Tuesday’s session opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and hedge selling pressure. Position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports, end of month, and end of quarter were also evident. Selling pressure advanced once the USDA reports were released as the Stocks estimate and 2024 production revision was negative corn.
The Quarterly Grain stocks estimate for corn came in at 1.532 BB, 195 MB above expectations, 207 MB above last month but 231 MB below last year. According to the Stocks estimate, 888 MB is being held off farm while 643 MB is on farm. IA is by far the state holding the most corn in storage at 336 MB followed by MN at 176 MB.
The 2024 revised crop production estimate for corn came in at 14.892 BB, 7 MB above expectations and 25 MB above last month. The net result that USDA will have to address in the Oct Crop Production report will be a 25 MB increase in production and a 207 MB increase in stocks. Technically there was no damage done to corn.
Uncertainty kept the corn market quiet Wednesday as traders look for direction. Corn opened the session with small gains but slipped to trade in the red for most of the night. Early selling was tied to Tuesday’s reports as both the Stocks estimate and revised 2024 production estimates were negative corn. Light selling was also tied to the government shutdown as this will halt the release of reports. Light selling as also tied to BAGE’s higher production estimate for Argentina corn. They are now estimating the crop at 58 MMT vs 49 MMT last year. Late in the session, corn managed to stage a recovery. Support spilled over from the rallying soybean complex. Technically corn did bounce off major support. Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 995,000 barrels, down 29,000 barrels from the previous week and a 20-week low. Stocks were estimated at 22.76 million barrels; a decline of 704,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand declined.
To close out the week ending Thursday. corn opened higher and held those gains for most of the session. Gains were trimmed early in the session due to the lack of news due to the government shutdown. The shutdown has resulted in the export sales report to be cancelled and at this point it appears that the Oct Crop Production report will be postponed. But corn found support, which helped corn bounce off $4.10 support. Demand remains strong and so far, yield reports have been disappointing, which added to late session support. Talk that the administration is looking at making a substantial aid announcement for farmers on Tuesday added support. StoneX’s corn yield is now estimated at 185.9 bus vs 186.9 bus previously.
Dec corn support is $3.85.
As of Sept 28, 95% of the nation’s corn crop was dented vs 91% last week and 96% average. Mature was estimated at 71% vs 56% last week and vs 74% average. Harvest was estimated at 18% complete vs 11% last week and vs 19% average. Corn’s crop condition rating was unchanged at 66% g/e, 24% fair, and 10% v/vp.
Last week’s corn export shipments pace was estimated at 60.1 MB. After 4 weeks, corn shipments were at 7% of USDA’s expectations vs. 5% last year. With 48 weeks left in corn’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 57.8 MB to make USDA’s projection of 2.975 BB.
For the week, Dec corn was at $4.19 down 3.0 cents. Mar corn was at $4.3575 down 3.0 cents.