After the holiday weekend, corn gapped higher and proceeded to extend session gains until about 1 AM, when a retracement stepped in and pulled corn lower. Support spilled over from a sharply higher wheat complex. Pressure came from technical selling as sell orders were triggered once corn traded to resistance levels. Light support came from an escalation in both wars as attacks increased in the Black Sea region as well as in the Middle East. Dr Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield estimate 1 bu. to 177 bu. For SA, he left his production estimate for Brazil unchanged at 135 MMT and also left Argentina’s production unchanged at 54 MMT. As of Sept 4, Brazil was reporting second crop corn harvest at 93% complete vs 88% last week and 96% average. First crop corn planting progress was estimated at 14% complete vs 12% average.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower but managed to firm to end the night session close to steady. Early support came from reports that Mexico was in and bought 183 TMT of corn. Support was also due to support from a stronger crude oil market (West Texas crude crossed over $100). Corn faded their gains once the day session got under way with most of the selling tied to position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of USDA’s Sept Crop Production report. StoneX released their estimate for the report, and it was slightly negative coming in at 182.9 bu. vs USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bu.
On Thursday corn opened lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and push to post gains by the end of the night session. Early support spilled over from a strong soybean complex which was supported by two more flash export sales reports. Gains were kept in check by reports that the Rosario Grain group has increased their production estimate for Argentina one more time. This time to 67.5 to 70.0 MMT vs 66 MMT previously. Position squaring added support as traders work to get on the right side of the market ahead of Friday’s report.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.099 million barrels, down 11,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.19 million, up 152,0000 barrels.
The average trade estimate for the report has corn’s yield at 178.2 bus vs 180.7 bus last month. Production is estimated at 15.785 BB vs 16.013 BB last month. Ending stocks are estimated at 1.528 BB vs 1.653 BB last month. Old crop stocks are estimated at 1.944 BB vs 1.945 BB last month. This seems low since USDA should increase old crop corn exports by 22 MB.
Dec corn support is at $5.07.
For the week, Dec corn was at $5.3025 down 6.5 cents. Mar corn was at $5.455 down 6.75 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments September 11
Corn Weekly Comments September 11
After the holiday weekend, corn gapped higher and proceeded to extend session gains until about 1 AM, when a retracement stepped in and pulled corn lower. Support spilled over from a sharply higher wheat complex. Pressure came from technical selling as sell orders were triggered once corn traded to resistance levels. Light support came from an escalation in both wars as attacks increased in the Black Sea region as well as in the Middle East. Dr Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield estimate 1 bu. to 177 bu. For SA, he left his production estimate for Brazil unchanged at 135 MMT and also left Argentina’s production unchanged at 54 MMT. As of Sept 4, Brazil was reporting second crop corn harvest at 93% complete vs 88% last week and 96% average. First crop corn planting progress was estimated at 14% complete vs 12% average.
In Wednesday’s session corn opened lower but managed to firm to end the night session close to steady. Early support came from reports that Mexico was in and bought 183 TMT of corn. Support was also due to support from a stronger crude oil market (West Texas crude crossed over $100). Corn faded their gains once the day session got under way with most of the selling tied to position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of USDA’s Sept Crop Production report. StoneX released their estimate for the report, and it was slightly negative coming in at 182.9 bu. vs USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bu.
On Thursday corn opened lower but managed to shake off early selling pressure and push to post gains by the end of the night session. Early support spilled over from a strong soybean complex which was supported by two more flash export sales reports. Gains were kept in check by reports that the Rosario Grain group has increased their production estimate for Argentina one more time. This time to 67.5 to 70.0 MMT vs 66 MMT previously. Position squaring added support as traders work to get on the right side of the market ahead of Friday’s report.
Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.099 million barrels, down 11,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were estimated at 25.19 million, up 152,0000 barrels.
The average trade estimate for the report has corn’s yield at 178.2 bus vs 180.7 bus last month. Production is estimated at 15.785 BB vs 16.013 BB last month. Ending stocks are estimated at 1.528 BB vs 1.653 BB last month. Old crop stocks are estimated at 1.944 BB vs 1.945 BB last month. This seems low since USDA should increase old crop corn exports by 22 MB.
Dec corn support is at $5.07.
For the week, Dec corn was at $5.3025 down 6.5 cents. Mar corn was at $5.455 down 6.75 cents.