Corn Weekly Comments September 12

Corn Weekly Comments September 12

To start the week corn opened the session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from last week’s lower close. Losses were kept in check by reports of frost in the northern states, especially ND, SD, MN, WI, MI, PA, and IA. Damage is expected to be limited due to the stage of development, but most are expecting lower test weights. Early pressure was also due to APK Inform’s Ukraine production estimate, which was increased to 30.3 MMT from 27.5 MMT previously. Brazil is looking at offering farmers a $2.2 B debt relief package due to low commodity prices and high input costs. OPEC plus has agreed to increase crude oil production 137,000 barrels per day starting Oct. AgRural is estimating Brazil’s first corn crop planting progress at 12% completed.

Corn opened Tuesday’s session lower but managed to recover and trade with small changes throughout the night session. The sloppy trading moved into the day session and corn closed with small losses. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s noneventful Crop Progress report, which showed corn’s crop rating dropping 1%. Most states saw minor changes, except for the Eastern Corn Belt, which saw dramatic declines. Weather forecasts added pressure as all three forecasts (short term, intermediate, and long term) are all calling for temps to warm back up to be above normal. Economic concerns and the lack of progress on trade deals added pressure. Corn’s trading volume is extremely low for this time of year as most traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting for more yield reports. As of Sept 5, Brazil’s first crop corn planting progress was estimated at 13% complete vs 7% last week and 14% average.

On Wednesday corn opened the overnight session lower and extended session losses throughout the night. Trading was anemic in corn overnight as most months only saw a 2-cent trading range. Early selling was tied to expectations that corn will not see much damage from the weekend frost in the Northern Plains. Improving weather forecasts added pressure as warmer temps will help push corn to maturity. Dr Cordonnier left his US corn yield unchanged at 184 bu.

Last week’s ethanol production was estimated at 1.105 million barrels, up 30,000 barrels from the previous week and above expectations. Stocks were estimated at 22.84 million, up 273,000 barrels from the previous week and above expectations. Gas demand sank to the bottom of the 5-year average.

Corn opened Thursday’s session steady and pushed to trade with gains during the night session. Thin light trading is dominating corn which was evident by Dec soybean oil having a larger trading volume Wednesday than Dec corn. Last week’s export sales pace was a bit disappointing, coming in below expectations, but so far 2025 corn exports pace is at the 2nd highest level for this time of year. Gains were kept in check by increased production estimates. Rosario Grain is looking at Argentina’s crop at a record 61 MMT. CONAB also increased their production estimate for Brazil, pushing production to 139.7 MMT vs 137.0 MMT previously. Light pressure was also due to reports that China is now allowing for imports of Brazil sorghum, which is negative both US corn and sorghum. Technical buying stepped into the corn market late, giving corn the strength to rally and close with small gains.

Dec corn support is $3.85.

For the week, Dec corn was at $4.30 up 12.0 cents. Mar corn was at $4.4725 up 10.75 cents.

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