MARTINSON AG OPENING COMMENTS JULY 02, 2026
Happy Thursday. Today is the last trading session for the week. The markets will be closed Thursday night and Friday in observance of the 4th of July Holiday. Regular trading will resume at 7 PM Sunday July 5. Canola will trade tomorrow. USDA’s July Crop Production and WASDE’s July Supply and Demand report will be released July 10. NOPA Crush estimate will be released July 15.
The grains put in another decent performance on Wednesday with all of the grains posting gains. Although trading is thin due to the holiday, another strong finish and the grains just might be getting ready to set themselves up for a decent recovery.
With the current weather forecast calling for above to much above normal temps and normal to below normal precip, along with Tuesday’s friendly reports, that the grains should at least attempt to make a 50% retracement of their recent losses. For Sept MW that level is $6.75. Dec corn’s 50% retracement would be $4.65 and Nov soybeans is $11.67. All decent targets to advance sales.
The May Crush estimate was a slight disappointment as the crush pace for the month came in at 213.1 MB vs expectations for 214.9 MB. Soybean oil stocks were also above expectations. The report also revised April’s crush pace down 1 MB to 217.5 MB. Both months remain at record levels for the month.
The US did not agree to advance the USMCA trade agreement. By not agreeing to continue the agreement in its current form, the agreement remains in place as is for 10 years, giving the powers that be time to renegotiate the terms of the agreement. This is a very important agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico, let’s hope the administration realizes that.
With the reports out of the way, the market will start to focus more on weather. The forecast for the next 10 to 14 days is expected to bring some intense heat to the US also with only hit and miss showers. If this high-pressure ridge lingers a little longer than its forecast, then we could see the market react. Both crops are starting their pollination phase, and weather could play a big role in the short term.
Currently rain is falling in western ND, western NE, northcentral KS, northwest IA, and southern MN and WI.
Trading will likely be thin and uneventful today as most of the traders evened up their positions after the report and took off to enjoy the 4th of July holiday. Thin volume might result in a wide trading range today, especially if some news comes into the market, but at this point it appears the grains are ready for the long weekend.
The grains did open the session steady in all three wheat exchanges, higher in corn, and lower in soybeans. All of the grains were able to shake off early selling pressure and push to trade with gains by early morning.
As of 5:30 AM, MW was up 0.25 cent, Chicago up 2 cents, KC up 1 cent, corn up 3 cents, soybeans up 5.25 cents, soybean meal up $3.10, soybean oil down 16 cents, and canola up 30 cents.
Cattle are showing signs of a higher opening. Futures steep discount to cash will be one supporting factor as well as strong demand and tight supplies.
As of 5:30 AM the outside markets were trading with crude oil down 95 cents, gold was down $5.00, the dollar was down 0.300 of a cent, and the Dow was up 100 points.
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