MARTINSON AG OPENING COMMENTS NOVEMBER 04, 2026
Happy Wednesday. The next USDA Crop Production report will be Nov 10. NOPA Crush will be released Nov 16.
Do you hear that, me either. No more political ads. All we have to do today is suffer through the play by play voting habits from yesterday and analyze how, why, and what. That seems a bit easy, the Democrats took the House, and they took the Senate and not is a small way. It appears to be a message that change needs to happen.
What does this mean for Ag? Not quite sure, but we can almost bet that if a Farm Bill is not passed in the Lame Duck Congress over the next two months or will not be passed for a while.
The next two years will likely be filled with a lot of investigations, hearings, and meetings. But it is also likely not much governing will be seen.
It is likely the war in Iran will be looked at as well as the recent trade deals and tariffs. It would not be surprising if the tariffs were lifted completely by Congress. But that would be done the roar a few months.
This is the uncertainty markets do not like.
As for the grains, it was another tough session on Tuesday. This time all of the grains took part in the sell off with the soybean complex, the worst performers once again. But wheat and corn were just as ugly.
Wheat and corn remain just off contracts lows (except for Mpls which hit new lows recently). The support seems to be holding in corn and wheat for now, but soybeans are seeing heavy selling pressure as of late. The funds still have a sizable, long position in the soybean complex and that seems to be the reason for the extra pressure.
Tuesday’s pressure came from a few different fronts. Reports that Ukraine, Russia, and the US are going to meet Nov 10 to 11 to discuss a possible end to the Black Sea war added pressure. The potential end to this conflict has held wheat and corn traders back from getting long those markets on the idea that no one wanted to be long when the war ended and grain could have the opportunity to move freely again.
It will be interesting to see what concessions and how much of the country Ukraine will have to surrender for peace.
There is also talk of a MOU between Iran and the US, but so far there has been no confirmation or details. Iran has downplayed the report while the US remains quiet. With the changing of the guard in Washington, either the war ends in the next two months before the new congress is sworn in, or it will end once the new congress meets.
Technically the grains are closer to finding a bottom than a top. Producers should be patient and wait for the dead cat bounce to resume marketing grains. If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to re-own production, now might be a good time to do that.
Overnight the grains opened the session steady to lower but has since firmed to trade mixed. As of 5:30 AM, MW is up 0.5 cent, Chicago up 0.25 cent, KC up 2.75 cents, corn down 1.75 cents, soybeans down 9.5 cents, soybean meal down $1.70, soybean oil down 63 cents, and canola down $9.20.
Cattle are showing signs of a firmer opening. The lower grains and hope for steady cash this week is helping add support. The fact that the election is over is another positive for the meats.
As of 5:30 AM the outside markets were trading with crude down 94 cents, gold was up $114.00, the dollar was down 0.461 of a cent, and the Dow was up 832 points.
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