MARTINSON AG OPENING COMMENTS OCTOBER 08, 2025
Happy Wednesday. We are now on day 8 of the government shutdown. The Senate is expected to vote on a CR today.
China returns after being on holiday for a week.
Gold traded above $4000 on Tuesday, breaking to another new all-time high. It appears that gold’s rally isn’t over yet as the precious metal continues to run higher.
The stock market continues to shine as well as the Dow is trading near all-time high territory while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded to new all-time high on Tuesday.
It seems odd that gold and the stock markets would be rallying to new all-time highs at the same time. Gold is a safe haven investment; one you buy when you expect a retracement in the stock markets. While the stock market index is something you buy when you have confidence in the economy.
Another oddity, corn and soybean basis levels improved this past week. It appears that the market is a bit concerned about the slow pace of grain moving to town. So far yield reports in much of the Northern Plains and Corn Belt has soybean yields near APH levels. Not enough corn has been harvested in the Northern Plains to show yield trend.
Producers who have had to sell grain should consider re own those sales. Use call options as premiums in the grains have decreased greatly due to the lack of volatility. Look to re own corn once Dec corn gets around $4.10 and soybeans once Nov soybeans trade down to around $10.15.
The grains put in a mixed performance on Tuesday with wheat and corn fading lower while soybeans pushed higher. Wheat was lower on improving world conditions while harvest pressure pushed corn lower. Trading volume and ranges continue to be an issue as both remain low. Corn’s volatility hit a new 52-week low yesterday.
Soybeans were supported by reports that the administration was going to announce some details on a new aid package for producers. There was no announcement made on Tuesday. Reports are saying the announcement will come this week.
The surprise market this week has been bean oil as if has returned to the main stage and has led soybeans this week.
Overnight the grains opened steady to lower in all contracts except for Chicago wheat, which was firm. By early morning had all three wheat exchanges were posting losses while corn was steady and soybeans higher. As of 5:30 AM, MW was down 0.25 cent, Chicago down 0.5 cent, KC down 1.25 cents, corn unchanged, soybeans up 1.75 cents, soybean meal down 90 cents, soybean oil up 37 cents, and canola up $1.30.
The ethanol production report should be released today, but Thursday’s Weekly Export Sales estimate and scheduled Oct Crop Production report will not be released. It is also likely the Oct COF report will not be released.
Cattle are showing signs of a higher opening. Cattle put in a strong performance Monday with tight supplies of feeder cattle helping to give feeder cattle their strength. The hope for a steady to firm cash trade will support live cattle.
As of 5:30 AM the outside markets were trading with crude oil up 69 cents, gold was up $62.20, the dollar was up 0.281 of a cent, and the Dow up 78 points.
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