SOYBEANS
Soybeans opened higher overnight and then quickly turned lower. The market got back on the positive side midway through the overnight session and then traded choppy and closed with small gains. Technical buying and spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market supported soybeans. Support also came from last week’s export shipments report with shipments just above the range of trade expectations. 499,000 MT were shipped to China, leaving them with about 2.0 MMT of unshipped purchases. Brazil’s crop is now 79% harvested vs. 83% average.
Tuesday’s session has soybeans trading back and forth on both sides of unchanged overnight and into the day session, then faded to close with losses. There wasn’t much fresh news to move the market, and traders seemed to be waiting to see what the Trump administration will do if Iran doesn’t meet Trump’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. So, the market took the path of least resistance lower. Some analysts think USDA will increase crush demand in Thursday’s report, but exports will likely be left unchanged until after the Trump/Xi meeting scheduled for mid-May. Dr. Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil’s crop unchanged at 179.0 MMT and increased Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 48.0 MMT.
Heavy selling hit the soybean complex midweek with soybeans gapping sharply lower at the start of the overnight session on the ceasefire announcement but then quickly started trimming the losses. The market got back on the positive side late in the overnight session and was able to close with small gains. Technical buying and positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA report helped soybeans turn higher. Gains were limited by the sharply lower soybean oil market. China is attempting to reduce the amount of soymeal their hog herd consumes and is promoting fermented feed, which has gone from 3% of industrial feed in 2022 to 8% in 2025 and is targeted to hit 15% by 2030. That would result in a 6% reduction in China’s soybean imports. In the first two months of their marketing year, Brazil exported 21.6 MMT of soybeans vs. 21.1 MMT for the same time period last year.
To close out the week ending Thursday, soybeans traded in a narrow range for the first part of the overnight session before starting to climb higher. The market saw the session highs early in the day and then traded in a choppy fashion and closed with small gains. Overnight gains spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market. The April USDA report was neutral to soybeans. USDA increased crush demand by 35 MB but cut exports by the same 35 MB, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 350 MB (1 MB lower than the trade expected). The national average price increased by 10 cents to $10.30.
South American production was also left unchanged with Brazil at 180.0 MMT (as expected) and Argentina at 48.0 MMT (0.1 MMT lower than expected). World ending stocks came in at 124.8 MMT, 0.5 MMT lower than last month and 0.9 MMT lower than expected.
Last week’s export sales were at the lower end of the range of trade estimates.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.7575 up 12.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.5775 up 3.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $331.80 up $16.60 and May soybean oil was at $67.09 down $1.85.
Soybean Weekly Comments April 10
Soybean Weekly Comments April 10
SOYBEANS
Soybeans opened higher overnight and then quickly turned lower. The market got back on the positive side midway through the overnight session and then traded choppy and closed with small gains. Technical buying and spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market supported soybeans. Support also came from last week’s export shipments report with shipments just above the range of trade expectations. 499,000 MT were shipped to China, leaving them with about 2.0 MMT of unshipped purchases. Brazil’s crop is now 79% harvested vs. 83% average.
Tuesday’s session has soybeans trading back and forth on both sides of unchanged overnight and into the day session, then faded to close with losses. There wasn’t much fresh news to move the market, and traders seemed to be waiting to see what the Trump administration will do if Iran doesn’t meet Trump’s deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. So, the market took the path of least resistance lower. Some analysts think USDA will increase crush demand in Thursday’s report, but exports will likely be left unchanged until after the Trump/Xi meeting scheduled for mid-May. Dr. Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil’s crop unchanged at 179.0 MMT and increased Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 48.0 MMT.
Heavy selling hit the soybean complex midweek with soybeans gapping sharply lower at the start of the overnight session on the ceasefire announcement but then quickly started trimming the losses. The market got back on the positive side late in the overnight session and was able to close with small gains. Technical buying and positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA report helped soybeans turn higher. Gains were limited by the sharply lower soybean oil market. China is attempting to reduce the amount of soymeal their hog herd consumes and is promoting fermented feed, which has gone from 3% of industrial feed in 2022 to 8% in 2025 and is targeted to hit 15% by 2030. That would result in a 6% reduction in China’s soybean imports. In the first two months of their marketing year, Brazil exported 21.6 MMT of soybeans vs. 21.1 MMT for the same time period last year.
To close out the week ending Thursday, soybeans traded in a narrow range for the first part of the overnight session before starting to climb higher. The market saw the session highs early in the day and then traded in a choppy fashion and closed with small gains. Overnight gains spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market. The April USDA report was neutral to soybeans. USDA increased crush demand by 35 MB but cut exports by the same 35 MB, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 350 MB (1 MB lower than the trade expected). The national average price increased by 10 cents to $10.30.
South American production was also left unchanged with Brazil at 180.0 MMT (as expected) and Argentina at 48.0 MMT (0.1 MMT lower than expected). World ending stocks came in at 124.8 MMT, 0.5 MMT lower than last month and 0.9 MMT lower than expected.
Last week’s export sales were at the lower end of the range of trade estimates.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.7575 up 12.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.5775 up 3.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $331.80 up $16.60 and May soybean oil was at $67.09 down $1.85.