Soybeans started the week by trading back and forth on both sides of unchanged throughout the session in a 20+ cent range. The market was able to see gains late in the session to close with decent gains. Bargain buying and losses being trimmed in the stock market supported soybeans in the day session. Light support came from last week’s export shipments report. Shipments were at the top end of the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 11% ahead of last year’s pace. Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 87% complete vs. 83% average and as that wraps up, the markets will start focusing on US weather. Brazil exported 14.68 MMT of soybeans in March and set a new record for the month. The first national crop progress report of the growing season was released this afternoon. Soybean planting is expected to be in next Monday’s report.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened the session higher and extended session gains right out of the gate and throughout the night. Soybeans managed to hold gains through the day session, but did fade the close to end with gains in the old crop but lower in the new crop months. Technical buying and the need to correct an oversold market helped give soybeans a push. Light support was also due to bargain hunter buying as most soybeans months are trading near major support. Dr Cordonnier left his South American soybean production estimate unchanged with Brazil at 169 MMT while Argentina is at 48 MMT. Gains were trimmed late in the session from reports that the US hiked China’s tariffs 50% to 104% effective immediately.
Soybeans opened Wednesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Technical buying and profit taking helped give soybeans strength overnight. Light support came from reports of an export sale of 198 TMT of soybeans to an unknown destination. But soybeans turned to trade mixed once the day session started with selling pressure from news that China increased US tariffs 50% which was soon followed by the US hiking China’s tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Light support continues to come from the higher soybean meal market which is being supported by the upcoming Argentina strike.
News that Big Oil and the Biofuels industry is asking for biodiesel mandate to be increased to 5.25 billion add support. That is much higher than the current 3.3 billion currently. But the big news came at noon as Trump put a 90 day pause on tariffs on all counties who have not retaliated against the US. The news rallied soybeans 25 cents, pushing most months to put in a key reversal performance on the charts.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly retreated. The market was able to bounce back and climb higher throughout the day session to close with double-digit gains. Thursday’s USDA report was overall neutral to soybeans. USDA lowered soybean ending stocks by 5 MB to 375 MB (that was 6 MB lower than expected). Imports were increased 5 MB and residual was increased 3 MB. That was offset by a 10 MB increase to crush and a 3 MB increase to residual. The national average price was left unchanged at $9.95.
For world numbers, USDA left Brazil’s production unchanged at 169.0 MMT (0.3 MMT lower than expected) and also left Argentina’s production unchanged at 49.0 MMT (0.2 MMT higher than expected). However, USDA went back and increased Brazil’s 2023/24 production by 1.5 MMT to 154.5 MMT. USDA increased world ending stocks by 1.1 MMT to 122.5 MMT (that was 0.2 MMT higher than expected.
CONAB in Brazil also released updated numbers. They increased their soybean production by 0.5 MMT to 167.9 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 45.5 MMT. Gains were limited by a disappointing export sales report. Last week’s sales were just 6.3 MB, lower than the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4275 up 65.75 cents while July soybeans were at $10.53 up 60.0 cents. May soybean meal was at $305.90 up $16.50 and May soybean oil was at $47.35 up $1.51.
Soybean Weekly Comments April 11
Soybean Weekly Comments April 11
Soybeans started the week by trading back and forth on both sides of unchanged throughout the session in a 20+ cent range. The market was able to see gains late in the session to close with decent gains. Bargain buying and losses being trimmed in the stock market supported soybeans in the day session. Light support came from last week’s export shipments report. Shipments were at the top end of the range of trade expectations. Shipments are running 11% ahead of last year’s pace. Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated at 87% complete vs. 83% average and as that wraps up, the markets will start focusing on US weather. Brazil exported 14.68 MMT of soybeans in March and set a new record for the month. The first national crop progress report of the growing season was released this afternoon. Soybean planting is expected to be in next Monday’s report.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans opened the session higher and extended session gains right out of the gate and throughout the night. Soybeans managed to hold gains through the day session, but did fade the close to end with gains in the old crop but lower in the new crop months. Technical buying and the need to correct an oversold market helped give soybeans a push. Light support was also due to bargain hunter buying as most soybeans months are trading near major support. Dr Cordonnier left his South American soybean production estimate unchanged with Brazil at 169 MMT while Argentina is at 48 MMT. Gains were trimmed late in the session from reports that the US hiked China’s tariffs 50% to 104% effective immediately.
Soybeans opened Wednesday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Technical buying and profit taking helped give soybeans strength overnight. Light support came from reports of an export sale of 198 TMT of soybeans to an unknown destination. But soybeans turned to trade mixed once the day session started with selling pressure from news that China increased US tariffs 50% which was soon followed by the US hiking China’s tariffs to 125% effective immediately. Light support continues to come from the higher soybean meal market which is being supported by the upcoming Argentina strike.
News that Big Oil and the Biofuels industry is asking for biodiesel mandate to be increased to 5.25 billion add support. That is much higher than the current 3.3 billion currently. But the big news came at noon as Trump put a 90 day pause on tariffs on all counties who have not retaliated against the US. The news rallied soybeans 25 cents, pushing most months to put in a key reversal performance on the charts.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly retreated. The market was able to bounce back and climb higher throughout the day session to close with double-digit gains. Thursday’s USDA report was overall neutral to soybeans. USDA lowered soybean ending stocks by 5 MB to 375 MB (that was 6 MB lower than expected). Imports were increased 5 MB and residual was increased 3 MB. That was offset by a 10 MB increase to crush and a 3 MB increase to residual. The national average price was left unchanged at $9.95.
For world numbers, USDA left Brazil’s production unchanged at 169.0 MMT (0.3 MMT lower than expected) and also left Argentina’s production unchanged at 49.0 MMT (0.2 MMT higher than expected). However, USDA went back and increased Brazil’s 2023/24 production by 1.5 MMT to 154.5 MMT. USDA increased world ending stocks by 1.1 MMT to 122.5 MMT (that was 0.2 MMT higher than expected.
CONAB in Brazil also released updated numbers. They increased their soybean production by 0.5 MMT to 167.9 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 45.5 MMT. Gains were limited by a disappointing export sales report. Last week’s sales were just 6.3 MB, lower than the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4275 up 65.75 cents while July soybeans were at $10.53 up 60.0 cents. May soybean meal was at $305.90 up $16.50 and May soybean oil was at $47.35 up $1.51.