To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the higher side throughout the overnight and into the day session. But the market started fading in the day session, turned lower, and closed with losses. Trade war concerns and slowing demand pressured the market as new crop soybean export sales at just 400,000 MT are the lowest in 18 years and there are no sales to China on the books (although some of the unknown sales could be China). Spillover pressure came from the steep losses in the outside markets as the Dow was down by over 1,100 points. Brazil’s soybean harvest is now at 92% complete vs. 91% average. Rains have slowed harvest progress in Argentina where only 6% of the soybeans have been harvested vs. 22% average. But forecasts for the next 2 weeks look to be drier. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations.
Soybeans opened Tuesday’s session higher and continued to trade with gains throughout the session. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report which showed planting progress for both corn and soybeans ahead of average, which should result in producers earlier planting intentions be realized. Light support came from Monday’s announced China vessel tax, which excluded bulk ag products and came in with lower-than-expected fees. Light support came from reports that China bought more soybeans from the US in March than expected. Comments from the Treasury Sec stating that the tariff tit for tat with China cannot continue and that a trade deal will likely be made soon.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and traded mostly higher in the session. The market faded late in the day session but still closed with small gains. Support came from the Trump administration indicating they are open to de-escalating the trade war with China while a Chinese government spokesman said “our doors are wide open” for talks. The Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is considering lowing tariff levels on China to 50% to get talks started but the White House said that was pure speculation. Technical buying added support. Gains were limited by expectations that good planting progress is being made this week.
On Thursday soybeans were mostly higher overnight, saw the session lows at the start of the day session but then climbed higher throughout the day session and closed with solid gains. Support came from reports that Japan is considering increasing their imports of soybeans and rice from the US as a concession in trade talks. Japan imported 2.2 MMT of US soybeans in the 2023/24 marketing year and have imported 1.7 MMT so far this marketing year. They are looking at increasing US imports to 3.0 to 3.5 MMT per year. Chinese officials clarified that there have been no trade talks with the US as of yet and the US should drop all tariffs before talks begin. But the market largely ignored that. Last week’s export sales were at the lower end of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales total 1.729 BB, up 13% from last year’s same week total of 1.525 BB. New crop export sales are a different story with total new crop sales at just 17 MB vs. 31 MB at this point in the prior year.
As of April 20, 8% of the nation’s soybean crop was planted vs 2% last week and 5% average.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4975 up 13.25 cents while July soybeans were at $10.5925 up 11.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $290.00 down $5.60 and May soybean oil was at $49.28 up $1.41.
Soybean Weekly Comments April 25
Soybean Weekly Comments April 25
To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and stayed on the higher side throughout the overnight and into the day session. But the market started fading in the day session, turned lower, and closed with losses. Trade war concerns and slowing demand pressured the market as new crop soybean export sales at just 400,000 MT are the lowest in 18 years and there are no sales to China on the books (although some of the unknown sales could be China). Spillover pressure came from the steep losses in the outside markets as the Dow was down by over 1,100 points. Brazil’s soybean harvest is now at 92% complete vs. 91% average. Rains have slowed harvest progress in Argentina where only 6% of the soybeans have been harvested vs. 22% average. But forecasts for the next 2 weeks look to be drier. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations.
Soybeans opened Tuesday’s session higher and continued to trade with gains throughout the session. Early support came from Monday’s Crop Progress report which showed planting progress for both corn and soybeans ahead of average, which should result in producers earlier planting intentions be realized. Light support came from Monday’s announced China vessel tax, which excluded bulk ag products and came in with lower-than-expected fees. Light support came from reports that China bought more soybeans from the US in March than expected. Comments from the Treasury Sec stating that the tariff tit for tat with China cannot continue and that a trade deal will likely be made soon.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and traded mostly higher in the session. The market faded late in the day session but still closed with small gains. Support came from the Trump administration indicating they are open to de-escalating the trade war with China while a Chinese government spokesman said “our doors are wide open” for talks. The Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is considering lowing tariff levels on China to 50% to get talks started but the White House said that was pure speculation. Technical buying added support. Gains were limited by expectations that good planting progress is being made this week.
On Thursday soybeans were mostly higher overnight, saw the session lows at the start of the day session but then climbed higher throughout the day session and closed with solid gains. Support came from reports that Japan is considering increasing their imports of soybeans and rice from the US as a concession in trade talks. Japan imported 2.2 MMT of US soybeans in the 2023/24 marketing year and have imported 1.7 MMT so far this marketing year. They are looking at increasing US imports to 3.0 to 3.5 MMT per year. Chinese officials clarified that there have been no trade talks with the US as of yet and the US should drop all tariffs before talks begin. But the market largely ignored that. Last week’s export sales were at the lower end of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales total 1.729 BB, up 13% from last year’s same week total of 1.525 BB. New crop export sales are a different story with total new crop sales at just 17 MB vs. 31 MB at this point in the prior year.
As of April 20, 8% of the nation’s soybean crop was planted vs 2% last week and 5% average.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4975 up 13.25 cents while July soybeans were at $10.5925 up 11.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $290.00 down $5.60 and May soybean oil was at $49.28 up $1.41.