To start the week, soybeans were mostly higher overnight and into Monday’s day session. But the market turned lower when then reports were released and never recovered. The March 1 grain stocks report was largely a non-event for soybeans. Stocks were estimated at 1.910 BB vs. the average trade estimate of 1.901 BB and last year’s 1.845 BB. USDA estimated this spring’s planted soybean acres at 83.495 million, 3.555 million acres (or 4.1% lower), less than last year and 267,000 lower than expected. Even though acres were lower than expected, the market didn’t react as the lower acres had already been worked into the market.
Acres were unchanged or lower than last year in 23 of the 29 main soybean growing states. For the top 5 states: IL acres down 2.8% from last year, IA down 4.5%, MN down 5.4%, ND down 6.1% and IN down 1.7%. On the other side, NY and OH are projected to plant a record number of acres with NY at 380,000 acres and OH at 5.1 million acres. In other news today, Brazil’s harvest is estimated at 83% complete vs. 77% average. Last week’s export shipments were at the high end of the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged for most of the overnight session. The market started climbing late in the overnight session and continued to climb in the day session to close sharply higher. Support came from news that oil and biofuel representatives have agreed on blending mandates and are ready to take their plan to EPA today. The groups are recommending increasing the biomass-based diesel mandate from 3.35 billion gallons to 5.5 to 5.75 million gallons. In addition, yesterday USDA released $537 million for 543 projects to expand biofuel infrastructure.
USDA’s February crush report put crush at 189.0 MB, right in line with the average trade estimate of 188.7 MB but lower than last February’s 193.4 MB. Soybean oil stocks were estimated at 2.24 billion pounds, 28 million pounds below the average trade estimate and down 11% from last month.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the lower side and closed with small losses. Tariff uncertainly pulled the market lower as everyone was waiting for President Trump’s new tariffs to be announced this afternoon. Traders are worried that other countries will respond in kind and put tariffs on US soybeans. Slowing export demand and the big crop in Brazil also pressured soybeans as Brazil’s export association estimated March exports at 16.09 MMT, a new all-time record. Losses were limited by the gains in the soybean oil market, which closed sharply higher for the second day in a row. USDA reported a sale of 135,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines. Dr Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 169.0 MMT and Argentina at 48.0 MMT. StoneX cut their estimate by 0.8 MMT to 167.54 MMT.
On Thursday soybeans dropped sharply lower at the start of the overnight session and never got close to the positive side, closing with 18 to 20 cent losses. The market was pressured by yesterday’s tariff announcements as traders worry other countries will retaliate by putting tariffs on US soybeans or will look to other countries for their needs. Traders will also be looking for more information on the Trump administration’s biofuel policy as government incentives to produce more biofuels would offset some on the pain of losing export sales due to tariff retaliation. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower stock market. Last week’s export sales were at the low end of the range of trade estimates. Total sales are still running 14% ahead of last year.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $9.77 down 46.0 cents while July soybeans were at $9.93 down 44.25 cents. May soybean meal was at $283.10 down $10.40 and May soybean oil was at $45.84 up 68 cents
For the month, May soybeans were down 11.0 cents while July soybeans were down 11.75 cents. May soybean meal down $7.50 and May soybean oil was up 77 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments April 4
Soybean Weekly Comments April 4
To start the week, soybeans were mostly higher overnight and into Monday’s day session. But the market turned lower when then reports were released and never recovered. The March 1 grain stocks report was largely a non-event for soybeans. Stocks were estimated at 1.910 BB vs. the average trade estimate of 1.901 BB and last year’s 1.845 BB. USDA estimated this spring’s planted soybean acres at 83.495 million, 3.555 million acres (or 4.1% lower), less than last year and 267,000 lower than expected. Even though acres were lower than expected, the market didn’t react as the lower acres had already been worked into the market.
Acres were unchanged or lower than last year in 23 of the 29 main soybean growing states. For the top 5 states: IL acres down 2.8% from last year, IA down 4.5%, MN down 5.4%, ND down 6.1% and IN down 1.7%. On the other side, NY and OH are projected to plant a record number of acres with NY at 380,000 acres and OH at 5.1 million acres. In other news today, Brazil’s harvest is estimated at 83% complete vs. 77% average. Last week’s export shipments were at the high end of the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged for most of the overnight session. The market started climbing late in the overnight session and continued to climb in the day session to close sharply higher. Support came from news that oil and biofuel representatives have agreed on blending mandates and are ready to take their plan to EPA today. The groups are recommending increasing the biomass-based diesel mandate from 3.35 billion gallons to 5.5 to 5.75 million gallons. In addition, yesterday USDA released $537 million for 543 projects to expand biofuel infrastructure.
USDA’s February crush report put crush at 189.0 MB, right in line with the average trade estimate of 188.7 MB but lower than last February’s 193.4 MB. Soybean oil stocks were estimated at 2.24 billion pounds, 28 million pounds below the average trade estimate and down 11% from last month.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the lower side and closed with small losses. Tariff uncertainly pulled the market lower as everyone was waiting for President Trump’s new tariffs to be announced this afternoon. Traders are worried that other countries will respond in kind and put tariffs on US soybeans. Slowing export demand and the big crop in Brazil also pressured soybeans as Brazil’s export association estimated March exports at 16.09 MMT, a new all-time record. Losses were limited by the gains in the soybean oil market, which closed sharply higher for the second day in a row. USDA reported a sale of 135,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines. Dr Cordonnier left his South American production estimates unchanged with Brazil at 169.0 MMT and Argentina at 48.0 MMT. StoneX cut their estimate by 0.8 MMT to 167.54 MMT.
On Thursday soybeans dropped sharply lower at the start of the overnight session and never got close to the positive side, closing with 18 to 20 cent losses. The market was pressured by yesterday’s tariff announcements as traders worry other countries will retaliate by putting tariffs on US soybeans or will look to other countries for their needs. Traders will also be looking for more information on the Trump administration’s biofuel policy as government incentives to produce more biofuels would offset some on the pain of losing export sales due to tariff retaliation. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower stock market. Last week’s export sales were at the low end of the range of trade estimates. Total sales are still running 14% ahead of last year.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $9.77 down 46.0 cents while July soybeans were at $9.93 down 44.25 cents. May soybean meal was at $283.10 down $10.40 and May soybean oil was at $45.84 up 68 cents
For the month, May soybeans were down 11.0 cents while July soybeans were down 11.75 cents. May soybean meal down $7.50 and May soybean oil was up 77 cents.