In Monday’s session soybeans were lower overnight and then added to the losses in the day session to close solidly lower. Light pressure came from Friday afternoon’s Pro Farmer yield estimate which increased the soybean yield 0.6 bu. from USDA’s current estimate and increased production 53 MB from USDA’s estimate.
But political news in Monday’s day session pulled the market lower. The Trump administration announced a plan to impose an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods tied to excess manufacturing capacity. This comes ahead of Chinese President Xi’s visit to the US in September. And late in the session the US announced additional sanctions on Iran including secondary sanctions on those countries that do business with Iran. When Treasury Sect. Bessent was asked if secondary sanctions could be placed on China, he said, “no one is above the reach of US sanctions.” Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower soybean oil market on reports that the EPA may issue over 1.8 billion RINs of small refinery exemptions, almost double the prior estimate of 990 million RINs.
On Tuesday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher throughout the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from continuing strong demand as USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Support also came from yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report that lowered the soybean rating 1% to 60% g/e. Traders had expected conditions to remain unchanged. ND’s rating dropped another 7% to 26% g/e, SD dropped 3% to 46% g/e and MN dropped 2% to 65% g/e. Technical buying added to the gains. A private analyst estimates Brazil will plant 121.6 million acres of soybeans this fall, near unchanged from last year.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market climbed higher throughout the day session and closed sharply higher. Early support came from another export sale as USDA reported a sale of 333,000 MT of soybeans to China. But when the wheat markets shot sharply higher on reports Russia sees peace talks at a dead end and will intensify attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, soybeans went along for the ride. China has been consistently buying US soybeans and in Thursday’s weekly export sales report traders expect to see total sales anywhere between 1.5 MMT and 3.0 MMT. Over the last month China has sold 1.58 MMT of the 2.17 MMT of reserve soybeans offered at auction in an effort to make room for US soybean purchases.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side overnight but were able to see small gains in the day session and closed a couple of cents higher on Thursday. Early pressure came from profit taking after Wednesday’s strong gains (that were mainly due to spillover support from wheat). But day session support came from the weekly export sales report. Old crop sales were just 2.7 MB, but new crop sales were 91.1 MB, the largest next marketing year’s weekly total in 2 years. Total new crop sales are at 527 MB vs. just 266 MB at the same time last year. China has purchased 12.5 MMT of US soybeans for the current marketing year. But new crop sales to China already total 6.8 MMT plus another 4.9 MMT have been sold to unknown destinations (likely China). The White House is urging EPA to approve higher RIN waivers than previously discussed in order to lower fuel prices. But EPA said waiver decisions are not being directed by the White House.
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $12.7625 up 51.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.88 up 48.5 cents. Sept soybean meal at $338.20 up $20.50 and Sept soybean oil was at $70.59 up $1.24.
Soybean Weekly Comments August 28
Soybean Weekly Comments August 28
In Monday’s session soybeans were lower overnight and then added to the losses in the day session to close solidly lower. Light pressure came from Friday afternoon’s Pro Farmer yield estimate which increased the soybean yield 0.6 bu. from USDA’s current estimate and increased production 53 MB from USDA’s estimate.
But political news in Monday’s day session pulled the market lower. The Trump administration announced a plan to impose an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods tied to excess manufacturing capacity. This comes ahead of Chinese President Xi’s visit to the US in September. And late in the session the US announced additional sanctions on Iran including secondary sanctions on those countries that do business with Iran. When Treasury Sect. Bessent was asked if secondary sanctions could be placed on China, he said, “no one is above the reach of US sanctions.” Pressure also spilled over from the sharply lower soybean oil market on reports that the EPA may issue over 1.8 billion RINs of small refinery exemptions, almost double the prior estimate of 990 million RINs.
On Tuesday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher throughout the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from continuing strong demand as USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. Support also came from yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report that lowered the soybean rating 1% to 60% g/e. Traders had expected conditions to remain unchanged. ND’s rating dropped another 7% to 26% g/e, SD dropped 3% to 46% g/e and MN dropped 2% to 65% g/e. Technical buying added to the gains. A private analyst estimates Brazil will plant 121.6 million acres of soybeans this fall, near unchanged from last year.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market climbed higher throughout the day session and closed sharply higher. Early support came from another export sale as USDA reported a sale of 333,000 MT of soybeans to China. But when the wheat markets shot sharply higher on reports Russia sees peace talks at a dead end and will intensify attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, soybeans went along for the ride. China has been consistently buying US soybeans and in Thursday’s weekly export sales report traders expect to see total sales anywhere between 1.5 MMT and 3.0 MMT. Over the last month China has sold 1.58 MMT of the 2.17 MMT of reserve soybeans offered at auction in an effort to make room for US soybean purchases.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side overnight but were able to see small gains in the day session and closed a couple of cents higher on Thursday. Early pressure came from profit taking after Wednesday’s strong gains (that were mainly due to spillover support from wheat). But day session support came from the weekly export sales report. Old crop sales were just 2.7 MB, but new crop sales were 91.1 MB, the largest next marketing year’s weekly total in 2 years. Total new crop sales are at 527 MB vs. just 266 MB at the same time last year. China has purchased 12.5 MMT of US soybeans for the current marketing year. But new crop sales to China already total 6.8 MMT plus another 4.9 MMT have been sold to unknown destinations (likely China). The White House is urging EPA to approve higher RIN waivers than previously discussed in order to lower fuel prices. But EPA said waiver decisions are not being directed by the White House.
Sept soybean support is $11.40. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Sept soybeans were at $12.7625 up 51.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.88 up 48.5 cents. Sept soybean meal at $338.20 up $20.50 and Sept soybean oil was at $70.59 up $1.24.