Soybean Weekly Comments Dec 13

Soybean Weekly Comments Dec 13

Soybeans started the week by trading in a narrow range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market saw its session highs early in the day session but then fell lower and closed with small losses. Without much fresh news to move the market and traders waiting for Tuesday’s USDA report, soybeans look the path of least resistance lower. Heavy rains fell in central and southern Brazil over the weekend while Argentina was dry. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 95% complete vs. 92% last week and 90% average. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations but a 10-week low.

In Tuesday’s session soybeans were slightly higher overnight and added a couple of cents to the gains in a very choppy day session. The March contract closed over the $10.00 mark for the first time since Nov. 19. Today’s report was largely a non-event for soybeans. Spillover support from the corn market helped soybeans close with gains. USDA left 2024/25 US ending stocks unchanged at 470 MB (that was 3 MB lower than expected). The national average price was lowered 60 cents to $10.20.

For South America, USDA left Brazil’s soybean production unchanged at 169.0 MMT (0.4 MMT lower than expected) and increased Argentina’s production 1.0 MMT to 52.0 MMT (0.3 MMT higher than expected). World ending stocks were increased by 0.2 MMT to 131.9 MMT (0.9 MMT lower than expected).

On Wednesday soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged for most of the session. The market faded late in the day session but was able to hold on to small gains. Tuesday’s USDA report didn’t have much news to move the soybean market. USDA increased Argentina’s production by 1.0 MMT but forecasts for late December look to be hot and dry. Brazil is seeing mostly good growing conditions and USDA left their production unchanged. Announced export sales have slowed. The last daily sale was a routine sale to China on Dec. 5.

In Thursday’s session soybeans opened lower overnight but got back on the positive side towards the end of the overnight session. In the day session the market pulled back but then rebounded and closed just above unchanged. Pressure came from a disappointing weekly export sales report. Soybean sales were below the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low. That was partially offset by USDA’s announcement of a sale of 334,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination. That was the first daily sales announcement in a week.

In South American news, CONAB slightly increased their estimate of Brazil’s crop from 166.2 MMT vs. 166.1 MMT last month while Brazil’s crush association increased their estimate by 1.0 MMT to 168.7 MMT. Rosario Grains Exchange left their estimate of Argentina’s crop unchanged at 53.0 MMT to 53.5 MMT. Argentina’s soybean planting is at 66% complete vs. 62% average.

Target $10.85 to advance sales.

Jan soybeans support is at $9.75 while resistance is at $10.85.

For the week, January soybeans were at $9.8825 down 5.5 cents and March soybeans were at $9.95 down 4.25 cents. January soybean meal was at $286.20 down $1.20 and January soybean oil was at $42.61 down 36 cents.

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