After the long weekend, soybeans were lower overnight but were able to get back on the positive side early in the day session only to fade and close just above unchanged. Overnight losses were due to reports of better-than-expected rains in Argentina over the weekend. Support came from last week’s export shipments report that was at the high end of the range of trade expectations. China still has 5.1 MMT of unshipped purchases on the books. Brazil’s soybean harvest is 19% complete vs. 24% average.
Tuesday’s NOPA report added support. NOPA reported January crush at 221.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 218.5 MB and shattering the prior record for January of 200.4 MB. Soybean oil stocks at 1.900 billion pounds were sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 1.710 billion pounds.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were higher overnight, lost ground in the day session but were able to trim losses late in the day session and close right around unchanged. Expectations of increased planted acres when the Ag Outlook Forum releases their 10-year projections tomorrow pressured soybeans. The average trade estimate of 2026 planted acres is 84.9 million vs. 81.2 million last year. CoBank expects 86.0 million acres of soybeans this spring. A lack of export sales announcements also pressured soybeans as China is on holiday for Lunar New Year. Losses were limited by spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market. There are reports EPA will send its biofuel blending quotas to the White House for review by the end of the week.
On Thursday soybeans opened the overnight session lower but quickly turned higher and added to the gains to close with solid gains. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum released their 2026/27 estimates this morning. 2026 planted soybean acres are estimated at 85.0 million vs. 81.2 million last year. That was right in line with trade estimates, so the market didn’t react much to the increased amount. The 2026 yield was estimated at 53.0 bushels, unchanged from last year and production at 4.450 BB vs. 4.262 BB this past year. The Forum also estimates crush will increase by another 85 MB and exports will increase 125 MB, putting 2026/27 ending stocks at 355 MB vs. 350 MB this past year. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Gains were limited by rains falling across central Argentina.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.375 up 4.5 cents while May soybeans were at $11.5375 up 4.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $309.80 up 60 cents and March soybean oil was at $58.92 up $1.84.
Soybean Weekly Comments February 20
Soybean Weekly Comments February 20
After the long weekend, soybeans were lower overnight but were able to get back on the positive side early in the day session only to fade and close just above unchanged. Overnight losses were due to reports of better-than-expected rains in Argentina over the weekend. Support came from last week’s export shipments report that was at the high end of the range of trade expectations. China still has 5.1 MMT of unshipped purchases on the books. Brazil’s soybean harvest is 19% complete vs. 24% average.
Tuesday’s NOPA report added support. NOPA reported January crush at 221.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 218.5 MB and shattering the prior record for January of 200.4 MB. Soybean oil stocks at 1.900 billion pounds were sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 1.710 billion pounds.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans were higher overnight, lost ground in the day session but were able to trim losses late in the day session and close right around unchanged. Expectations of increased planted acres when the Ag Outlook Forum releases their 10-year projections tomorrow pressured soybeans. The average trade estimate of 2026 planted acres is 84.9 million vs. 81.2 million last year. CoBank expects 86.0 million acres of soybeans this spring. A lack of export sales announcements also pressured soybeans as China is on holiday for Lunar New Year. Losses were limited by spillover support from the sharply higher soybean oil market. There are reports EPA will send its biofuel blending quotas to the White House for review by the end of the week.
On Thursday soybeans opened the overnight session lower but quickly turned higher and added to the gains to close with solid gains. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum released their 2026/27 estimates this morning. 2026 planted soybean acres are estimated at 85.0 million vs. 81.2 million last year. That was right in line with trade estimates, so the market didn’t react much to the increased amount. The 2026 yield was estimated at 53.0 bushels, unchanged from last year and production at 4.450 BB vs. 4.262 BB this past year. The Forum also estimates crush will increase by another 85 MB and exports will increase 125 MB, putting 2026/27 ending stocks at 355 MB vs. 350 MB this past year. Spillover support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Gains were limited by rains falling across central Argentina.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.375 up 4.5 cents while May soybeans were at $11.5375 up 4.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $309.80 up 60 cents and March soybean oil was at $58.92 up $1.84.