After the long weekend, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session. The market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Overnight pressure came from reports of good rains in large parts of Argentina over the weekend. Northern and central Brazil is seeing a break in the rains and harvest pace has picked up. Overall, Brazil’s soybeans are 27% harvested vs. 25% average. Mato Grosso, the largest soybean growing state, made huge gains from 27% harvested last week to 52% harvested. Spillover support in the day session came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. NOPA reported Jan. crush at 200.4 MB, that was lower than the average trade estimate of 204.5 MB but shattered the previous Jan. record of 185.5 MB. Soybean oil stocks were in line with expectations. Last week’s export shipments were below the range of trade expectations and the lowest in 20 weeks.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans spent the overnight session in a tight range on both sides of unchanged. The market reached its highs for the day early in the day session but they fell lower and closed with losses. Pressure came from widespread rains for Argentina in the 6 to 10 day forecast and the 11-to-15-day forecast. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. Brazil’s ag export association pulled back their estimate of Feb. soybean exports from 10.0 MMT to 9.72 MMT. That would still shatter the prior record for Feb. of 6.61 MMT. Agroconsult is in the middle of a crop tour of Brazil’s soybean crop. They lowered their production estimate by 1.1 MMT to 171.3 MMT (USDA is at 169.0 MMT). Higher than expected yields in Mato Grosso offset losses in other states.
Soybeans slowly gained ground throughout Thursday’s session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from President Trump’s comments that a trade deal with China is possible. Ideas that the recent rains in Argentina are too late to help the soybean crop added support as this week will again see highs in the 90s. Technical buying also added to the gains. IGC lowered world soybean production by 2.0 MMT to 418.0 MMT due to weather issues in Argentina and Paraguay.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Mar soybeans support is at $9.47 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.395 up 3.5 cents while May soybeans were at $10.5725 up 4.5 cents. March soybean meal was at $294.80 down $1.10 and March soybean oil was at $46.81 up 74 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments February 21
Soybean Weekly Comments February 21
After the long weekend, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session. The market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Overnight pressure came from reports of good rains in large parts of Argentina over the weekend. Northern and central Brazil is seeing a break in the rains and harvest pace has picked up. Overall, Brazil’s soybeans are 27% harvested vs. 25% average. Mato Grosso, the largest soybean growing state, made huge gains from 27% harvested last week to 52% harvested. Spillover support in the day session came from the sharply higher soybean oil market. NOPA reported Jan. crush at 200.4 MB, that was lower than the average trade estimate of 204.5 MB but shattered the previous Jan. record of 185.5 MB. Soybean oil stocks were in line with expectations. Last week’s export shipments were below the range of trade expectations and the lowest in 20 weeks.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans spent the overnight session in a tight range on both sides of unchanged. The market reached its highs for the day early in the day session but they fell lower and closed with losses. Pressure came from widespread rains for Argentina in the 6 to 10 day forecast and the 11-to-15-day forecast. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. Brazil’s ag export association pulled back their estimate of Feb. soybean exports from 10.0 MMT to 9.72 MMT. That would still shatter the prior record for Feb. of 6.61 MMT. Agroconsult is in the middle of a crop tour of Brazil’s soybean crop. They lowered their production estimate by 1.1 MMT to 171.3 MMT (USDA is at 169.0 MMT). Higher than expected yields in Mato Grosso offset losses in other states.
Soybeans slowly gained ground throughout Thursday’s session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from President Trump’s comments that a trade deal with China is possible. Ideas that the recent rains in Argentina are too late to help the soybean crop added support as this week will again see highs in the 90s. Technical buying also added to the gains. IGC lowered world soybean production by 2.0 MMT to 418.0 MMT due to weather issues in Argentina and Paraguay.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
Mar soybeans support is at $9.47 while resistance is at $10.85.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.395 up 3.5 cents while May soybeans were at $10.5725 up 4.5 cents. March soybean meal was at $294.80 down $1.10 and March soybean oil was at $46.81 up 74 cents.