To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and didn’t get back on the positive side until early in the day session. The market then faded for the rest of the session and closed with small losses. Uncertainty after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs caused the market to gap lower at the start of the session. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news added pressure. China is still on holiday for Lunar New Year. Last week’s export shipments were the 4th lowest of the marketing year. Out of 24.6 MB shipped, 12.7 MB went to China. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 31% complete vs. 34% average. Mato Grosso’s harvest is 62% complete vs. 71% average as heavy rains in central Brazil are delaying harvest.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were briefly higher at the start of the overnight session before turning lower. But the market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with 5 cent gains. Technical buying and spillover support from the strong gains in the soybean oil market supported soybeans. China said they will respond to President Trump’s most recent tariffs “in due course.” Trump will travel to China to meet with Xi at the end of March. It’s been 20 days since President Trump announced China was considering buying another 8 MMT of US soybeans. Over that time period only 1 daily export sales announcement was made, and it was for just 264,000 MT. As Lunar New Year celebrations wrap up traders will be watching for new purchases. Dr Cordonnier lowered his estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 178.0 MMT due to heavy rains in central Brazil and dry conditions in the south.
On Wednesday soybeans saw solid gains overnight, turned lower at the start of the day session but then climbed higher for the rest of the session and closed with solid gains. Support came from rumors of China buying soybeans sourced out of the Pacific Northwest, but no sales have been confirmed yet. Widespread rains in Brazil added support as the central part of the country has already had harvest pace slowed by excessive rains. Brazil expects to export 10.69 MMT of soybean in February. That would be sharply higher than last Feb’s 6.43 MMT and would set a new record for the month.
In Thursday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight, dropped 20 cents lower early in the day session but then spent the rest of the session trimming losses and closed just a cent or two below unchanged. Pressure came from an article in the South China Post that said the success of the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of March is in jeopardy due to poor coordination with the US, rushed timelines, and escalating trade tensions. Pressure also came from last week’s disappointing export sales report that showed sales at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year. But support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market on the White House confirming they received the EPA’s biofuel mandates proposal, and it should be approved by the end of March.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.5725 up 19.75 cents while May soybeans were at $11.7075 up 17.5 cents. March soybean meal was at $315.50 up $5.70 and March soybean oil was at $61.29 up $2.37
For the month, March soybeans were up 93.0 cents while May soybeans were up 93.75 cents. March soybean meal was up $21.90 and March soybean oil was up $7.78
Soybean Weekly Comments February 27
Soybean Weekly Comments February 27
To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and didn’t get back on the positive side until early in the day session. The market then faded for the rest of the session and closed with small losses. Uncertainty after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs caused the market to gap lower at the start of the session. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news added pressure. China is still on holiday for Lunar New Year. Last week’s export shipments were the 4th lowest of the marketing year. Out of 24.6 MB shipped, 12.7 MB went to China. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 31% complete vs. 34% average. Mato Grosso’s harvest is 62% complete vs. 71% average as heavy rains in central Brazil are delaying harvest.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were briefly higher at the start of the overnight session before turning lower. But the market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with 5 cent gains. Technical buying and spillover support from the strong gains in the soybean oil market supported soybeans. China said they will respond to President Trump’s most recent tariffs “in due course.” Trump will travel to China to meet with Xi at the end of March. It’s been 20 days since President Trump announced China was considering buying another 8 MMT of US soybeans. Over that time period only 1 daily export sales announcement was made, and it was for just 264,000 MT. As Lunar New Year celebrations wrap up traders will be watching for new purchases. Dr Cordonnier lowered his estimate of Brazil’s crop by 1.0 MMT to 178.0 MMT due to heavy rains in central Brazil and dry conditions in the south.
On Wednesday soybeans saw solid gains overnight, turned lower at the start of the day session but then climbed higher for the rest of the session and closed with solid gains. Support came from rumors of China buying soybeans sourced out of the Pacific Northwest, but no sales have been confirmed yet. Widespread rains in Brazil added support as the central part of the country has already had harvest pace slowed by excessive rains. Brazil expects to export 10.69 MMT of soybean in February. That would be sharply higher than last Feb’s 6.43 MMT and would set a new record for the month.
In Thursday’s session soybeans saw small gains overnight, dropped 20 cents lower early in the day session but then spent the rest of the session trimming losses and closed just a cent or two below unchanged. Pressure came from an article in the South China Post that said the success of the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of March is in jeopardy due to poor coordination with the US, rushed timelines, and escalating trade tensions. Pressure also came from last week’s disappointing export sales report that showed sales at the bottom end of the range of trade expectations and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year. But support came from the sharply higher soybean oil market on the White House confirming they received the EPA’s biofuel mandates proposal, and it should be approved by the end of March.
March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $11.5725 up 19.75 cents while May soybeans were at $11.7075 up 17.5 cents. March soybean meal was at $315.50 up $5.70 and March soybean oil was at $61.29 up $2.37
For the month, March soybeans were up 93.0 cents while May soybeans were up 93.75 cents. March soybean meal was up $21.90 and March soybean oil was up $7.78