Market activity in the soybeans was nothing short of disappointing this week. To start the week, soybeans were higher for the first half of the overnight session but then turned lower and slowly drifted for the rest of the session. Pressure came from widespread rains over the weekend for Brazil. Argentina saw rains in the north, but the rest of the country remains dry. However, there are increasing chances of rain throughout Argentina in the 6 to 10 and 11-to-15-day forecasts. USDA reported a sale of 100,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt. Traders are disappointed there haven’t been any announced daily sales to China since Dec. 22. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade estimates.
In an attempt to clean up an oversold condition, soybeans traded a few cents higher overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with minor losses. USDA reported export sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China and 231,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. Combined sales to China and unknown destinations since the end of October sit at 5.4 MMT. Analysts estimate total Chinese purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year are around 9 to 10 MMT. Weekly export sales reports are still on a delayed schedule due to the shutdown. Day session pressure came from position squaring ahead of year end. Rains in Brazil and northern Argentina added pressure but the export sales did limit losses. Those recent rains led Dr. Cordonnier to increase his estimate of Brazil’s production by 1 MMT to 178 MMT (USDA is currently at 175 MMT). He left his estimate of Argentina’s production unchanged at 49 MMT.
To close out the week ending Wednesday, soybeans opened lower and extended session losses. Early selling was tied to position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of year end. Light selling was also tied to reports of heavy deliveries against the Jan futures overnight. Deliveries were the heaviest since Nov 2021. Additional selling was tied to another disappointing export sales estimate. USDA released their exports sales report for the week ending Dec 18 and it showed soybeans sales at their lowest pace in 5 weeks. Light selling came from SA weather forecast with is calling for favorable condition in Brazil the next 7 days while rain is in the forecast for Argentina in the 8-to-14-day forecast. Pressure is coming from reports that soybean’s open interest is decreasing as the market retreats, which is a signal of liquidation.
Soybeans March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.4575 down 26.75 cents, while May soybeans were at $10.5875 down 25.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $295.90 down $11.40, and March soybean oil was at $49.32 up 8 cents.
For the month, March soybeans were down 98.5 cents while May soybeans were down 94.25 cents. March soybean meal was down $24.80 and March soybean oil was down $3.99.
For the year, March soybeans were up 13.25 cents while May soybeans were up 21.75 cents. March soybean meal was down $30.40 and March soybean oil was up $7.47.
Soybean Weekly Comments January 2
Soybean Weekly Comments January 2
Market activity in the soybeans was nothing short of disappointing this week. To start the week, soybeans were higher for the first half of the overnight session but then turned lower and slowly drifted for the rest of the session. Pressure came from widespread rains over the weekend for Brazil. Argentina saw rains in the north, but the rest of the country remains dry. However, there are increasing chances of rain throughout Argentina in the 6 to 10 and 11-to-15-day forecasts. USDA reported a sale of 100,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt. Traders are disappointed there haven’t been any announced daily sales to China since Dec. 22. Last week’s export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade estimates.
In an attempt to clean up an oversold condition, soybeans traded a few cents higher overnight but lost ground in the day session and closed with minor losses. USDA reported export sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China and 231,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. Combined sales to China and unknown destinations since the end of October sit at 5.4 MMT. Analysts estimate total Chinese purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year are around 9 to 10 MMT. Weekly export sales reports are still on a delayed schedule due to the shutdown. Day session pressure came from position squaring ahead of year end. Rains in Brazil and northern Argentina added pressure but the export sales did limit losses. Those recent rains led Dr. Cordonnier to increase his estimate of Brazil’s production by 1 MMT to 178 MMT (USDA is currently at 175 MMT). He left his estimate of Argentina’s production unchanged at 49 MMT.
To close out the week ending Wednesday, soybeans opened lower and extended session losses. Early selling was tied to position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of year end. Light selling was also tied to reports of heavy deliveries against the Jan futures overnight. Deliveries were the heaviest since Nov 2021. Additional selling was tied to another disappointing export sales estimate. USDA released their exports sales report for the week ending Dec 18 and it showed soybeans sales at their lowest pace in 5 weeks. Light selling came from SA weather forecast with is calling for favorable condition in Brazil the next 7 days while rain is in the forecast for Argentina in the 8-to-14-day forecast. Pressure is coming from reports that soybean’s open interest is decreasing as the market retreats, which is a signal of liquidation.
Soybeans March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.4575 down 26.75 cents, while May soybeans were at $10.5875 down 25.75 cents. March soybean meal was at $295.90 down $11.40, and March soybean oil was at $49.32 up 8 cents.
For the month, March soybeans were down 98.5 cents while May soybeans were down 94.25 cents. March soybean meal was down $24.80 and March soybean oil was down $3.99.
For the year, March soybeans were up 13.25 cents while May soybeans were up 21.75 cents. March soybean meal was down $30.40 and March soybean oil was up $7.47.