In Monday’s session soybeans climbed 5 cents higher at the start of the overnight session and then held steady overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from technical buying. Light support came from updated forecasts that reduced rain amounts for southern Argentina, which is already the driest part of the county. USDA released last week’s export shipments and export sales for the week ending 12/25/25. Both were in the range of trade estimates. As of Dec. 25, marketing year to date purchases by China total 6.4 MMT (236 MB). But most analysts think China may have bought up to 10 MMT (when adding in sales to unknown destinations).
On Tuesday soybeans were higher overnight and saw the session highs early in the day session. But the market slowly faded for the rest of the session and closed with losses. Early support came from rumors that China bought 10 cargoes of US soybeans. USDA confirmed 5 of those cargoes with this morning’s announcement of a sale of 336,000 MT to China. Dry conditions in southern Argentina added support. But losses were trimmed by expectations of higher production in Brazil. StoneX joined other private analysts who have recently increased their production estimates. StoneX increased their estimate from 177.2 MMT to 177.6 MMT citing higher yields in Mato Grosso.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the higher side and closed with double-digit gains. Rumors of China purchases (half of which USDA has already confirmed) supported soybeans. Most analysts believe China has bought about 10 MMT of US soybeans since the end of October so China is getting close to hitting the 12 MMT target set at the Trump/Xi meeting. However, shipments of soybeans to China have been slow and traders will be keeping an eye on those numbers. Positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA report added support. Too much rain in northern Brazil and ongoing dry conditions in southern Argentina also added to the gains.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy session overnight and lost ground in the day session to close with small losses on Thursday. Pressure came from forecasts showing most of Argentina will see 1 to 3 inches of rain over the weekend and into early next week. USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China. USDA has now confirmed 7 of the 10 cargoes that China was rumored to by buying at the start of the week. Marketing year sales to China officially total 6.9 MMT but most traders believe the actual number is closer to 10 MMT when adding in sales to unknown destinations. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales are running 39% behind last year’s pace. Brazil expects its 2026 soybean exports to total 112 MMT vs. 109 MMT last year but also noted that exports to China are expected to drop 10 MMT to 77 MMT due to an increase in China’s purchases from the US.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, the average trade estimate for the soybean yield is 52.7 bu. vs. 53.0 bu. last month, production at 4.229 BB vs. 4.253 BB last month and ending stocks at 303 MB vs. 290 MB last month. The average trade estimate for Dec. 1 grain stocks is 3.250 BB vs. 3.100 BB last year. The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 176.8 MMT vs. 175.0 MMT last month, Argentina’s production at 48.6 MMT vs. 48.5 MMT last month and world ending stocks at 123.4 MMT vs. 122.4 MMT last month.
Soybeans March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.625 up 16.75 cents while May soybeans were at $10.745 up 16.0 cents. March soybean meal was at $303.70 up $7.70 and March soybean oil was at $49.69 up 39 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments January 9
Soybean Weekly Comments January 9
In Monday’s session soybeans climbed 5 cents higher at the start of the overnight session and then held steady overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Support came from technical buying. Light support came from updated forecasts that reduced rain amounts for southern Argentina, which is already the driest part of the county. USDA released last week’s export shipments and export sales for the week ending 12/25/25. Both were in the range of trade estimates. As of Dec. 25, marketing year to date purchases by China total 6.4 MMT (236 MB). But most analysts think China may have bought up to 10 MMT (when adding in sales to unknown destinations).
On Tuesday soybeans were higher overnight and saw the session highs early in the day session. But the market slowly faded for the rest of the session and closed with losses. Early support came from rumors that China bought 10 cargoes of US soybeans. USDA confirmed 5 of those cargoes with this morning’s announcement of a sale of 336,000 MT to China. Dry conditions in southern Argentina added support. But losses were trimmed by expectations of higher production in Brazil. StoneX joined other private analysts who have recently increased their production estimates. StoneX increased their estimate from 177.2 MMT to 177.6 MMT citing higher yields in Mato Grosso.
Soybeans spent Wednesday’s session on the higher side and closed with double-digit gains. Rumors of China purchases (half of which USDA has already confirmed) supported soybeans. Most analysts believe China has bought about 10 MMT of US soybeans since the end of October so China is getting close to hitting the 12 MMT target set at the Trump/Xi meeting. However, shipments of soybeans to China have been slow and traders will be keeping an eye on those numbers. Positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA report added support. Too much rain in northern Brazil and ongoing dry conditions in southern Argentina also added to the gains.
Soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in a choppy session overnight and lost ground in the day session to close with small losses on Thursday. Pressure came from forecasts showing most of Argentina will see 1 to 3 inches of rain over the weekend and into early next week. USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China. USDA has now confirmed 7 of the 10 cargoes that China was rumored to by buying at the start of the week. Marketing year sales to China officially total 6.9 MMT but most traders believe the actual number is closer to 10 MMT when adding in sales to unknown destinations. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales are running 39% behind last year’s pace. Brazil expects its 2026 soybean exports to total 112 MMT vs. 109 MMT last year but also noted that exports to China are expected to drop 10 MMT to 77 MMT due to an increase in China’s purchases from the US.
Ahead of Monday’s USDA reports, the average trade estimate for the soybean yield is 52.7 bu. vs. 53.0 bu. last month, production at 4.229 BB vs. 4.253 BB last month and ending stocks at 303 MB vs. 290 MB last month. The average trade estimate for Dec. 1 grain stocks is 3.250 BB vs. 3.100 BB last year. The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 176.8 MMT vs. 175.0 MMT last month, Argentina’s production at 48.6 MMT vs. 48.5 MMT last month and world ending stocks at 123.4 MMT vs. 122.4 MMT last month.
Soybeans March soybean support is $10.30.
For the week, March soybeans were at $10.625 up 16.75 cents while May soybeans were at $10.745 up 16.0 cents. March soybean meal was at $303.70 up $7.70 and March soybean oil was at $49.69 up 39 cents.